Iran commits not to attack ships in Hormuz by Sunday?

根據「Iran commits not to attack ships in Hormuz by Sunday?」的最新預測市場資料，交易者已形成強烈共識。

目前，No 以壓倒性的 9,765% 獲勝機率主導市場；Yes 以 235% 位居第二。該市場的下注量已達 $207K，反映出市場的高度關注。

為了更好地評估各潛在結果的位置，可依據隱含機率與合約定價將市場劃分為三個明顯的交易梯隊：

🥇 第一梯隊：絕對領跑者

• No (9,765%)：No 目前擁有最高機率，深受訂單簿青睞。看好該結果的交易者面對的「Buy Yes」合約價為 9,765¢，顯示出市場的高度確信。

🥈 第二梯隊：主要挑戰者

• Yes (235%)：作為最可行的替代選項，Yes 保持著 235% 的成真機率，其「Buy Yes」份額目前成交價為 235¢。

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Iranian government, or an authorized representative of the Iranian government, publicly and officially announces a commitment not to attack ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz, between market creation and July 12, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of Iran’s present or future policy not to attack ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz.

A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify a commitment not to attack ships transiting the Strait. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe such a policy, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. The announcement need not use specific terminology; an announcement of a resumption of prior obligations, the maintenance of a status quo, or a return to a previously agreed baseline qualifies, provided the substantive policy not to attack ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz is clearly and unambiguously communicated.

A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify.

The following do not qualify:

Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official;

Statements by persons not authorized to speak for the Iranian government;

Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that Iran will make such an announcement;

Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications; and

Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional policy rather than announcing a present and decided position.

Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to “Yes” regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether a the policy is ever actually implemented.

Resolution will be based on official information from the Iranian government, including the Iranian military, and its authorized representatives.