How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of July 13?

根據「How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of July 13?」的最新預測市場資料，交易者已形成強烈共識。

目前，<100 以壓倒性的 3,400% 獲勝機率主導市場；125-149 以 3,400% 位居第二，150-174 以 3,400% 排名第三。該市場的下注量已達 —，反映出市場的高度關注。

為了更好地評估各潛在結果的位置，可依據隱含機率與合約定價將市場劃分為三個明顯的交易梯隊：

🥇 第一梯隊：絕對領跑者

• <100 (3,400%)：<100 目前擁有最高機率，深受訂單簿青睞。看好該結果的交易者面對的「Buy Yes」合約價為 3,400¢，顯示出市場的高度確信。

🥈 第二梯隊：主要挑戰者

• 125-149 (3,400%)：作為最可行的替代選項，125-149 保持著 3,400% 的成真機率，其「Buy Yes」份額目前成交價為 3,400¢。
• 150-174 (3,400%)：以 3,400% 的機率位列第三，市場對 150-174 持謹慎懷疑態度，除非勢頭轉變，否則視其為外圍黑馬。

🥉 第三梯隊：長尾選項（合計約 0%）

在前三名之外，還有大量宏觀變數與冷門結果被持續追蹤。儘管單個機率偏低，但它們是投機交易者的重要對沖：

• 替代選項：包括 175+ (3,400%)，以及 100-124 (3,350%)。
• 投機成交：儘管統計機率偏低，像 175+ 這類長尾合約仍吸引著可觀的關注。

This market will resolve according to the finalized total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from July 13, 2026, through July 19, 2026, inclusive.

Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.

Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).

This market will resolve as soon as data has been finalized for the final date in the specified period. If the data for the final date of the specified period has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.

In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.

Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.

The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.