Highest Air Quality Index at the stadium during the World Cup Final?

根據「Highest Air Quality Index at the stadium during the World Cup Final?」的最新預測市場資料，交易者已形成強烈共識。

目前，60+ 以壓倒性的 8,700% 獲勝機率主導市場；90+ 以 3,050% 位居第二，120+ 以 1,200% 排名第三。該市場的下注量已達 $1.3K，反映出市場的高度關注。

為了更好地評估各潛在結果的位置，可依據隱含機率與合約定價將市場劃分為三個明顯的交易梯隊：

🥇 第一梯隊：絕對領跑者

• 60+ (8,700%)：60+ 目前擁有最高機率，深受訂單簿青睞。看好該結果的交易者面對的「Buy Yes」合約價為 8,700¢，顯示出市場的高度確信。

🥈 第二梯隊：主要挑戰者

• 90+ (3,050%)：作為最可行的替代選項，90+ 保持著 3,050% 的成真機率，其「Buy Yes」份額目前成交價為 3,050¢。
• 120+ (1,200%)：以 1,200% 的機率位列第三，市場對 120+ 持謹慎懷疑態度，除非勢頭轉變，否則視其為外圍黑馬。

🥉 第三梯隊：長尾選項（合計約 0%）

在前三名之外，還有大量宏觀變數與冷門結果被持續追蹤。儘管單個機率偏低，但它們是投機交易者的重要對沖：

• 替代選項：包括 150+ (900%)、180+ (650%)，以及 210+ (400%)。
• 投機成交：儘管統計機率偏低，像 150+ 這類長尾合約仍吸引著可觀的關注。

The World Cup Final match between Spain and Argentina is expected to be played at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey, beginning at 3:00PM ET.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the highest PM2.5 Air Quality Index recorded in East Rutherford, New Jersey, between the opening kickoff and the end of gameplay in the World Cup Final, including any potential overtime and penalty kicks that may determine the winner of the World Cup is at least equal or higher than the listed figure. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market's resolution source will be the Current Air Quality figure found at https://www.airnow.gov/?city=East%20Rutherford&state=NJ&country=USA. In the event of uncertainty, this market will resolve based on the hourly figures published for the Union City High School monitor, which can be found here: https://gispub.epa.gov/airnow/?contours=none&monitors=ozonepm&xmin=-8250536.396073639&xmax=-8234197.981277704&ymin=4972953.424285053&ymax=4981084.413168878.

In the event that no World Cup Final is held by July 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "No".

If the figures or the resolution source are unavailable for the entirety of the game, another credible resolution source will be chosen.