Greater Manchester Mayoral Election: Margin of Victory

根據「Greater Manchester Mayoral Election: Margin of Victory」的最新預測市場資料，交易者已形成強烈共識。

目前，Bev Craig 5–10% 以壓倒性的 4,700% 獲勝機率主導市場；Sian Astley <5% 以 4,350% 位居第二，Bev Craig <5% 以 2,350% 排名第三。該市場的下注量已達 $77，反映出市場的高度關注。

為了更好地評估各潛在結果的位置，可依據隱含機率與合約定價將市場劃分為三個明顯的交易梯隊：

🥇 第一梯隊：絕對領跑者

• Bev Craig 5–10% (4,700%)：Bev Craig 5–10% 目前擁有最高機率，深受訂單簿青睞。看好該結果的交易者面對的「Buy Yes」合約價為 4,700¢，顯示出市場的高度確信。

🥈 第二梯隊：主要挑戰者

• Sian Astley <5% (4,350%)：作為最可行的替代選項，Sian Astley <5% 保持著 4,350% 的成真機率，其「Buy Yes」份額目前成交價為 4,350¢。
• Bev Craig <5% (2,350%)：以 2,350% 的機率位列第三，市場對 Bev Craig <5% 持謹慎懷疑態度，除非勢頭轉變，否則視其為外圍黑馬。

🥉 第三梯隊：長尾選項（合計約 0%）

在前三名之外，還有大量宏觀變數與冷門結果被持續追蹤。儘管單個機率偏低，但它們是投機交易者的重要對沖：

• 替代選項：包括 Bev Craig 10–15% (750%)、Bev Craig 15%+ (700%)，以及 Sian Astley 5%+ (650%)。
• 投機成交：儘管統計機率偏低，像 Other 這類長尾合約仍吸引著可觀的關注。

The 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on July 30, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the final round of the 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral election.

The final round will be the first round if a candidate wins outright, or the runoff if no candidate wins outright.

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.

If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”

This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.

If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from Greater Manchester Combined Authority (https://www.gmelects.org.uk/).