Graham Platner divorce by October 31?
核心摘要
根據「Graham Platner divorce by October 31?」的最新預測市場資料，交易者已形成強烈共識。
目前，Yes 以壓倒性的 5,000% 獲勝機率主導市場；No 以 5,000% 位居第二。該市場的下注量已達 —，反映出市場的高度關注。
競爭梯隊拆解
為了更好地評估各潛在結果的位置，可依據隱含機率與合約定價將市場劃分為三個明顯的交易梯隊：
🥇 第一梯隊：絕對領跑者
- Yes (5,000%)：Yes 目前擁有最高機率，深受訂單簿青睞。看好該結果的交易者面對的「Buy Yes」合約價為 5,000¢，顯示出市場的高度確信。
🥈 第二梯隊：主要挑戰者
- No (5,000%)：作為最可行的替代選項，No 保持著 5,000% 的成真機率，其「Buy Yes」份額目前成交價為 5,000¢。
完整訂單簿與定價面板
下表列出了該預測池中所有結果的合約價格、機率與市場深度的完整拆解：
| 排名 | 預測結果 | 獲勝機率 | 成交量 | 買入 Yes（成本） | 買入 No（成本） |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yes | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 2 | No | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
裁決規則
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Graham Platner or his spouse announce their intention to divorce, announce a completed divorce, or file for divorce, by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An announcement of their intention to divorce will be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the divorce later actually occurs, or whether the actual divorce occurs outside of the timeframe of this market. Announcements of separations will not alone qualify.
If Graham Platner or his spouse officially file for divorce without such an announcement, a consensus of credible reporting that the filing has occurred will be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be statements from Graham Platner, his spouse, and their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
常見問題
目前市場對「Graham Platner divorce by October 31?」的共識是什麼？
截至最新更新，Yes 以 5,000% 的獲勝機率領跑，其次是 No（5,000%）。該市場總成交量已達 —，顯示出充足的流動性與高交易參與度。