GPT-5.6 released by...?

根據「GPT-5.6 released by...?」的最新預測市場資料，交易者已形成強烈共識。

目前，July 31 以壓倒性的 95.3% 獲勝機率主導市場；June 30 以 27.8% 位居第二，June 23 以 5% 排名第三。該市場的下注量已達 $997.4K，反映出市場的高度關注。

為了更好地評估各潛在結果的位置，可依據隱含機率與合約定價將市場劃分為三個明顯的交易梯隊：

🥇 第一梯隊：絕對領跑者

• July 31 (95.3%)：July 31 目前擁有最高機率，深受訂單簿青睞。看好該結果的交易者面對的「Buy Yes」合約價為 95¢，顯示出市場的高度確信。僅該合約就已產生 $213.3K 的成交量。

🥈 第二梯隊：主要挑戰者

• June 30 (27.8%)：作為最可行的替代選項，June 30 保持著 27.8% 的成真機率，其「Buy Yes」份額目前成交價為 28¢。
• June 23 (5%)：以 5% 的機率位列第三，市場對 June 23 持謹慎懷疑態度，除非勢頭轉變，否則視其為外圍黑馬。

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's GPT-5.6 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

GPT-5.6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.5, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.7, GPT-5.8, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market)

Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.

For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.

The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

人群共識與投機成交塑造了更宏觀的預測市場，而我們的量化演算法提供了資料驅動的反向視角。透過分析基本面訊號、底層趨勢與歷史分布，我們的 AI 估值模型為每個結果獨立測算出一個「公允價值」機率。

將該公允價值與當前交易價值對比，可揭示出重大背離——即期望值（EV）差。正 EV 差代表統計上被低估的結果，而負 EV 差則提示市場可能存在反應過度。

頂級 AI Alpha 與錯誤定價套利機會

根據最新一輪資料模型測算，以下幾個關鍵合約存在顯著偏離：

• 最被高估的結果：July 31 當前交易價為 95.3%，但我們的 AI 測算其公允價值僅為 90.3%，形成 -4.9% 的較大負 EV 差，表明人群可能過度炒作該結果、把溢價推得過高。
• 最佳價值標的（最高 EV）：我們的模型將 June 23 識別為盤面上最具價值的機會。市場僅給予其 5% 的交易機率，而我們 AI 的公允價值評估為 56.1%——形成可觀的 +51.2% EV 差。
• 被忽視的黑馬：其他值得注意的偏離包括 June 30（EV 差：+19.6%）。儘管我們的預測模型給予更強的統計支撐，這些長尾機會仍被即時訂單簿大幅低估。