Flu Hospitalization Rate Week 26, 2026?
核心摘要
根據「Flu Hospitalization Rate Week 26, 2026?」的最新預測市場資料，交易者已形成強烈共識。
目前，85–90 以壓倒性的 9,765% 獲勝機率主導市場；95–100 以 245% 位居第二，90–95 以 195% 排名第三。該市場的下注量已達 $1.1K，反映出市場的高度關注。
競爭梯隊拆解
為了更好地評估各潛在結果的位置，可依據隱含機率與合約定價將市場劃分為三個明顯的交易梯隊：
🥇 第一梯隊：絕對領跑者
- 85–90 (9,765%)：85–90 目前擁有最高機率，深受訂單簿青睞。看好該結果的交易者面對的「Buy Yes」合約價為 9,765¢，顯示出市場的高度確信。僅該合約就已產生 $721 的成交量。
🥈 第二梯隊：主要挑戰者
- 95–100 (245%)：作為最可行的替代選項，95–100 保持著 245% 的成真機率，其「Buy Yes」份額目前成交價為 245¢。
- 90–95 (195%)：以 195% 的機率位列第三，市場對 90–95 持謹慎懷疑態度，除非勢頭轉變，否則視其為外圍黑馬。
🥉 第三梯隊：長尾選項（合計約 0%）
在前三名之外，還有大量宏觀變數與冷門結果被持續追蹤。儘管單個機率偏低，但它們是投機交易者的重要對沖：
- 替代選項：包括 <80 (145%)、100+ (110%)，以及 80–85 (65%)。
- 投機成交：儘管統計機率偏低，像 <80 這類長尾合約仍吸引著可觀的關注。
完整訂單簿與定價面板
下表列出了該預測池中所有結果的合約價格、機率與市場深度的完整拆解：
| 排名 | 預測結果 | 獲勝機率 | 成交量 | 買入 Yes（成本） | 買入 No（成本） |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 85–90 | 9765.0% | $721 | 9765¢ | -9665¢ |
| 2 | 95–100 | 245.0% | $102 | 245¢ | -145¢ |
| 3 | 90–95 | 195.0% | $69 | 195¢ | -95¢ |
| 4 | <80 | 145.0% | $69 | 145¢ | -45¢ |
| 5 | 100+ | 110.0% | $70 | 110¢ | -10¢ |
| 6 | 80–85 | 65.0% | $69 | 65¢ | 35¢ |
裁決規則
This market will resolve according to the cumulative influenza-associated hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the United States, as reported for the specified week.
If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be CDC FluView / FluSurv-NET (see: https://www.cdc.gov/fluview/index.html). If the FluSurv-NET hospitalization rate for the specified week is not released by 11:59 PM ET on the tenth calendar day following the date of the prior FluView weekly report release, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Note: Only the CDC FluSurv-NET cumulative hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the specified week will qualify, regardless of estimates, projections, state-level reports, or other influenza surveillance metrics published by the CDC or other sources.
交易動態
以下是該事件的交易動態。
Jul 4, 2026
- 08:25 AMKKkkffssddjjllddffssghskkgg$1.00
Bought 1.018277 Yes for Will the U.S. flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 26 be between 85 and 90? at 0.98
- 08:25 AMKKkkffssddjjlldd752ffsskkgg$1.00
Bought 1.018277 Yes for Will the U.S. flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 26 be between 85 and 90? at 0.98
- 08:25 AMKKkkffssddjjllddf751fsskkgg$1.00
Bought 1.018277 Yes for Will the U.S. flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 26 be between 85 and 90? at 0.98
- 08:25 AMSGsghsfhgsg$1.00
Bought 1.018277 Yes for Will the U.S. flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 26 be between 85 and 90? at 0.98
- 08:25 AMJKjkdashahwf5asdhfffdsg$1.00
Bought 1.018277 Yes for Will the U.S. flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 26 be between 85 and 90? at 0.98
- 08:25 AMKKkkffssddjjl5lddffsskkgg$1.00
Bought 1.018277 Yes for Will the U.S. flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 26 be between 85 and 90? at 0.98
- 08:25 AMKKkkffssddjjllddffsskkggfg$1.00
Bought 1.018277 Yes for Will the U.S. flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 26 be between 85 and 90? at 0.98
- 08:25 AMKFkfsdjldfskg$1.00
Bought 1.018277 Yes for Will the U.S. flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 26 be between 85 and 90? at 0.98
- 08:25 AMKKkkffssddjjllddff752sskkgg$1.00
Bought 1.018277 Yes for Will the U.S. flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 26 be between 85 and 90? at 0.98
- 08:25 AMKKkkffssddj7512772jllddffsskkgg$1.00
Bought 1.018277 Yes for Will the U.S. flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 26 be between 85 and 90? at 0.98
- 02:42 AMRIrichyee$0.00
Sold 33 Yes for Will the U.S. flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 26 be between 95 and 100? at 0
- 02:39 AMAHaHjCz$0.00
Sold 43.48 Yes for Will the U.S. flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 26 be at least 100? at 0
常見問題
目前市場對「Flu Hospitalization Rate Week 26, 2026?」的共識是什麼？
截至最新更新，85–90 以 9,765% 的獲勝機率領跑，其次是 95–100（245%），以及 90–95（195%）。該市場總成交量已達 $1.1K，顯示出充足的流動性與高交易參與度。