Fed decisions (Apr-Jul)

$132.4K Vol
2026年7月29日
Active
機率趨勢
Pause–Pause–Pause 81.5%
Other 17.3%
Pause–Pause–Cut 1.5%
Cut–Cut–Cut 0.1%
Cut–Pause–Pause 0.1%

核心摘要

根據「Fed decisions (Apr-Jul)」的最新預測市場資料，交易者已形成強烈共識。

目前，Pause–Pause–Pause 以壓倒性的 76.5% 獲勝機率主導市場；Other 以 23.9% 位居第二，Pause–Pause–Cut 以 1.2% 排名第三。該市場的下注量已達 $132.4K，反映出市場的高度關注。

競爭梯隊拆解

為了更好地評估各潛在結果的位置，可依據隱含機率與合約定價將市場劃分為三個明顯的交易梯隊：

🥇 第一梯隊：絕對領跑者

  • Pause–Pause–Pause (76.5%)：Pause–Pause–Pause 目前擁有最高機率，深受訂單簿青睞。看好該結果的交易者面對的「Buy Yes」合約價為 77¢，顯示出市場的高度確信。僅該合約就已產生 $33.2K 的成交量。

🥈 第二梯隊：主要挑戰者

  • Other (23.9%)：作為最可行的替代選項，Other 保持著 23.9% 的成真機率，其「Buy Yes」份額目前成交價為 24¢。
  • Pause–Pause–Cut (1.2%)：以 1.2% 的機率位列第三，市場對 Pause–Pause–Cut 持謹慎懷疑態度，除非勢頭轉變，否則視其為外圍黑馬。

完整訂單簿與定價面板

下表列出了該預測池中所有結果的合約價格、機率與市場深度的完整拆解：

排名預測結果獲勝機率成交量買入 Yes（成本）買入 No（成本）
1Pause–Pause–Pause76.5%$33.2K77¢24¢
2Other23.9%$40.1K24¢76¢
3Pause–Pause–Cut1.1%$7.0K1¢99¢

裁決規則

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.

A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.

A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.

A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.

If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".

Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.

The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:

https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm

The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:

https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm

AI 估值分析：發現市場錯誤定價與 EV 差

人群共識與投機成交塑造了更宏觀的預測市場，而我們的量化演算法提供了資料驅動的反向視角。透過分析基本面訊號、底層趨勢與歷史分布，我們的 AI 估值模型為每個結果獨立測算出一個「公允價值」機率。

將該公允價值與當前交易價值對比，可揭示出重大背離——即期望值（EV）差。正 EV 差代表統計上被低估的結果，而負 EV 差則提示市場可能存在反應過度。

頂級 AI Alpha 與錯誤定價套利機會

根據最新一輪資料模型測算，以下幾個關鍵合約存在顯著偏離：

  • 最被高估的結果：Pause–Pause–Pause 當前交易價為 76.5%，但我們的 AI 測算其公允價值僅為 46.1%，形成 -30.4% 的較大負 EV 差，表明人群可能過度炒作該結果、把溢價推得過高。
  • 最佳價值標的（最高 EV）：我們的模型將 Pause–Pause–Cut 識別為盤面上最具價值的機會。市場僅給予其 1.2% 的交易機率，而我們 AI 的公允價值評估為 35.6%——形成可觀的 +34.5% EV 差。
  • 被忽視的黑馬：其他值得注意的偏離包括 Other（EV 差：+11.6%）。儘管我們的預測模型給予更強的統計支撐，這些長尾機會仍被即時訂單簿大幅低估。
MarketTrade ValueFair ValueEV Gap
Pause–Pause–Pause76.5%46.1%-30.4%
Other23.9%35.5%+11.6%
Pause–Pause–CutBest EV1.1%35.6%+34.5%

交易動態

以下是該事件的交易動態。

Jun 30, 2026

  • 07:56 AM
    WAWaklert
    $8.20

    Sold 10 No for Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)? at 0.82

  • 06:23 AM
    TOtomkat07
    $8.00

    Bought 42.105262 No for Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)? at 0.19

  • 04:53 AM
    KOkorda77
    $4.15

    Bought 5 No for Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)? at 0.83

  • 04:53 AM
    KOkorda77
    $4.95

    Bought 5 No for Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)? at 0.99

  • 04:53 AM
    0X0xd823721597A464008050819ECC2d6C2c43E512fE-1782111812111
    $4.10

    Bought 5 Yes for Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)? at 0.82

  • 04:22 AM
    OLOlma
    $1.68

    Bought 2.024095 Yes for Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)? at 0.83

  • 01:27 AM
    LOlooks1584
    $0.02

    Sold 0.03 No for Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)? at 0.82

  • 01:26 AM
    LOlooks1584
    $40.98

    Sold 49.97 No for Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)? at 0.82

  • 01:04 AM
    VIVictor-Rainbow-Polymarket
    $0.85

    Sold 5 No for Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)? at 0.17

  • 01:04 AM
    0X0x9dE6461495bD48520077608AC9eF012A6EaBE7f0-1782112143003
    $4.10

    Bought 5 Yes for Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)? at 0.82

Jun 29, 2026

  • 10:41 PM
    4-4-testfollower-hm7
    $1.02

    Bought 5.36842 No for Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)? at 0.19

  • 10:41 PM
    4-4-testfollower-hm7
    $4.90

    Bought 25.789472 No for Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)? at 0.19

正在押注該事件的鯨魚錢包

A51
0xa5ef…2966
Event PnL
+$7,989.40
Volume
$11,999.10
Positions
NoNoNo
AR2
ArmageddonRewardsBilly
Event PnL
-$69.83
Volume
$8,272.15
Positions
NoYes
883
88blitzcrank
Event PnL
-$216.66
Volume
$4,368.72
Positions
Yes
HO4
HolyMoses7
Event PnL
-$29.70
Volume
$4,313.50
Positions
YesNoYes
125
1234ab
Event PnL
+$149.74
Volume
$1,911.20
Positions
YesNoYes
BU6
Bunpop
Event PnL
+$9.16
Volume
$1,869.92
Positions
Yes
PL7
planktonXD
Event PnL
+$5.09
Volume
$1,272.23
Positions
Yes
RE8
RewardsMafia
Event PnL
-$29.76
Volume
$1,190.45
Positions
No

常見問題

目前市場對「Fed decisions (Apr-Jul)」的共識是什麼？

截至最新更新，Pause–Pause–Pause 以 76.5% 的獲勝機率領跑，其次是 Other（23.9%），以及 Pause–Pause–Cut（1.2%）。該市場總成交量已達 $132.4K，顯示出充足的流動性與高交易參與度。

AI 公允價值與即時市場交易價值有何不同？

即時市場交易價值反映的是公眾情緒、訂單簿動能與投機資金。我們的 AI 公允價值則由量化模型獨立計算，剔除情緒炒作、專注底層數據。兩者出現顯著背離時即形成 EV 差，提示市場對某個結果可能存在錯誤定價。

目前哪個結果的期望值（EV）最高？

最新一輪測算顯示，Pause–Pause–Cut 是最顯著的錯誤定價。市場對其隱含機率僅給到 1.2%，而我們的 AI 測算其公允價值為 35.6%——形成 +34.5% 的期望值差，是該市場中最具價值的標的。

市場共識是否對某個結果反應過度？

是的——資料顯示市場對 Pause–Pause–Pause 存在明顯的反應過度。人群把其即時交易價值推高至 76.5%，但我們的公允價值評估認為其真實機率僅為 46.1%，形成 -30.4% 的負 EV 差，表明該合約被高估。

長尾資料中是否藏有高價值的黑馬選項？

當然有。除了頭部結果之外，我們的模型在排名靠後的選項中發現了被低估的潛力。Other 擁有 +11.6% 的正 EV 差。儘管量化層面更有支撐，這些合約仍被即時訂單簿低估。

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