FDA approves Retatrutide this year?

根據「FDA approves Retatrutide this year?」的最新預測市場資料，交易者已形成強烈共識。

目前，No 以壓倒性的 88.5% 獲勝機率主導市場；Yes 以 11.5% 位居第二。該市場的下注量已達 $569.8K，反映出市場的高度關注。

為了更好地評估各潛在結果的位置，可依據隱含機率與合約定價將市場劃分為三個明顯的交易梯隊：

🥇 第一梯隊：絕對領跑者

• No (88.5%)：No 目前擁有最高機率，深受訂單簿青睞。看好該結果的交易者面對的「Buy Yes」合約價為 89¢，顯示出市場的高度確信。

🥈 第二梯隊：主要挑戰者

• Yes (11.5%)：作為最可行的替代選項，Yes 保持著 11.5% 的成真機率，其「Buy Yes」份額目前成交價為 12¢。

Retatrutide is a triple agonist hormone/peptide drug developed by Eli Lilly and currently in trial to treat obesity, fatty liver disease, type-2 diabetes, knee osteoarthritis, and more.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) grants a full or conditional approval for Eli Lilly’s for a drug product whose active ingredient is Eli Lilly’s retatrutide (including any brand name or identifier such as LY3437943) for any use between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

An approval is defined as:

For new drugs: FDA issuance of an approval letter for a New Drug Application (NDA) or Biologics License Application (BLA)

For already-marketed drugs seeking new indications: FDA approval of a supplemental NDA (sNDA) or supplemental BLA (sBLA) for the specific indication referenced

For generic drugs: FDA approval of an Abbreviated New Drug Application (ANDA)

For biosimilars: FDA approval of a 351(k) application

The following constitute qualifying approvals:

Standard approval (traditional approval based on clinical benefit), Accelerated approval (based on surrogate endpoints), Approval with Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy (REMS), Approval with restricted distribution or indication limitations, except compassionate use/expanded access programs

The following do not constitute qualifying approvals:

Approvable letters that require additional actions before approval

Tentative approvals pending patent or exclusivity expiration

FDA requests for additional information or studies

Extension of Prescription Drug User Fee Amendments dates

Approval for compassionate use or expanded access programs only

Approval only for export or for use outside the United States

Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) without full approval

Complete Response Letters (CRLs) indicating the application cannot be approved in its current form

If the listed drug is approved within this market’s timeframe, the market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of potential Advisory Committee votes against approval or later withdrawal of approval.

Conditional approvals may include post-marketing requirements or commitments and still qualify.

The primary resolution source will be official information from the FDA; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

人群共識與投機成交塑造了更宏觀的預測市場，而我們的量化演算法提供了資料驅動的反向視角。透過分析基本面訊號、底層趨勢與歷史分布，我們的 AI 估值模型為每個結果獨立測算出一個「公允價值」機率。

將該公允價值與當前交易價值對比，可揭示出重大背離——即期望值（EV）差。正 EV 差代表統計上被低估的結果，而負 EV 差則提示市場可能存在反應過度。

頂級 AI Alpha 與錯誤定價套利機會

根據最新一輪資料模型測算，以下幾個關鍵合約存在顯著偏離：

• 最被高估的結果：No 當前交易價為 88.5%，但我們的 AI 測算其公允價值僅為 82.2%，形成 -6.3% 的較大負 EV 差，表明人群可能過度炒作該結果、把溢價推得過高。
• 最佳價值標的（最高 EV）：我們的模型將 Yes 識別為盤面上最具價值的機會。市場僅給予其 11.5% 的交易機率，而我們 AI 的公允價值評估為 17.8%——形成可觀的 +6.3% EV 差。