Elon Musk # tweets July 14 - July 21, 2026?
核心摘要
根據「Elon Musk # tweets July 14 - July 21, 2026?」的最新預測市場資料，交易者已形成強烈共識。
目前，180-199 以壓倒性的 1,750% 獲勝機率主導市場；200-219 以 1,450% 位居第二，220-239 以 1,250% 排名第三。該市場的下注量已達 $57.8K，反映出市場的高度關注。
競爭梯隊拆解
為了更好地評估各潛在結果的位置，可依據隱含機率與合約定價將市場劃分為三個明顯的交易梯隊：
🥇 第一梯隊：絕對領跑者
- 180-199 (1,750%)：180-199 目前擁有最高機率，深受訂單簿青睞。看好該結果的交易者面對的「Buy Yes」合約價為 1,750¢，顯示出市場的高度確信。僅該合約就已產生 $3.5K 的成交量。
🥈 第二梯隊：主要挑戰者
- 200-219 (1,450%)：作為最可行的替代選項，200-219 保持著 1,450% 的成真機率，其「Buy Yes」份額目前成交價為 1,450¢。
- 220-239 (1,250%)：以 1,250% 的機率位列第三，市場對 220-239 持謹慎懷疑態度，除非勢頭轉變，否則視其為外圍黑馬。
🥉 第三梯隊：長尾選項（合計約 0%）
在前三名之外，還有大量宏觀變數與冷門結果被持續追蹤。儘管單個機率偏低，但它們是投機交易者的重要對沖：
- 替代選項：包括 160-179 (1,150%)、260-279 (850%)，以及 140-159 (750%)。
- 投機成交：儘管統計機率偏低，像 240-259 這類長尾合約仍吸引著可觀的關注。
完整訂單簿與定價面板
下表列出了該預測池中所有結果的合約價格、機率與市場深度的完整拆解：
| 排名 | 預測結果 | 獲勝機率 | 成交量 | 買入 Yes（成本） | 買入 No（成本） |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 180-199 | 1750.0% | $3.5K | 1750¢ | -1650¢ |
| 2 | 200-219 | 1450.0% | $1.1K | 1450¢ | -1350¢ |
| 3 | 220-239 | 1250.0% | $1.2K | 1250¢ | -1150¢ |
| 4 | 160-179 | 1150.0% | $1.1K | 1150¢ | -1050¢ |
| 5 | 260-279 | 850.0% | $1.4K | 850¢ | -750¢ |
| 6 | 140-159 | 750.0% | $935 | 750¢ | -650¢ |
| 7 | 240-259 | 750.0% | $1.6K | 750¢ | -650¢ |
| 8 | 120-139 | 550.0% | $942 | 550¢ | -450¢ |
| 9 | 280-299 | 550.0% | $1.8K | 550¢ | -450¢ |
| 10 | 100-119 | 265.0% | $1.5K | 265¢ | -165¢ |
| 11 | 300-319 | 230.0% | $301 | 230¢ | -130¢ |
| 12 | 320-339 | 165.0% | $953 | 165¢ | -65¢ |
| 13 | 340-359 | 150.0% | $846 | 150¢ | -50¢ |
| 14 | 80-99 | 80.0% | $441 | 80¢ | 20¢ |
| 15 | 360-379 | 80.0% | $938 | 80¢ | 20¢ |
| 16 | 60-79 | 25.0% | $2.6K | 25¢ | 75¢ |
| 17 | 380-399 | 25.0% | $583 | 25¢ | 75¢ |
| 18 | 400-419 | 25.0% | $1.8K | 25¢ | 75¢ |
| 19 | 420-439 | 15.0% | $1.5K | 15¢ | 85¢ |
| 20 | 440-459 | 15.0% | $6.8K | 15¢ | 85¢ |
| 21 | 500+ | 15.0% | $18.8K | 15¢ | 85¢ |
| 22 | <20 | 5.0% | $8.2K | 5¢ | 95¢ |
| 23 | 20-39 | 5.0% | $7.2K | 5¢ | 95¢ |
| 24 | 40-59 | 5.0% | $7.9K | 5¢ | 95¢ |
| 25 | 460-479 | 5.0% | $3.2K | 5¢ | 95¢ |
| 26 | 480-499 | 5.0% | $4.7K | 5¢ | 95¢ |
裁決規則
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from July 14 12:00 PM ET to July 21, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
交易動態
以下是該事件的交易動態。
Jul 11, 2026
- 08:09 PMOBoboltusovao$45.00
Bought 45 No for Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from July 14 to July 21, 2026? at 1
- 08:09 PM0X0xf231137AaA9A413d9C9429c49D6b43A6e31c5df9-1762202614276$2.00
Bought 11.764704 Yes for Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 14 to July 21, 2026? at 0.17
- 08:08 PM0X0xf231137AaA9A413d9C9429c49D6b43A6e31c5df9-1762202614276$2.00
Bought 14.285713 Yes for Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 14 to July 21, 2026? at 0.14
- 08:08 PM0X0xf231137AaA9A413d9C9429c49D6b43A6e31c5df9-1762202614276$2.00
Bought 15.384614 Yes for Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 14 to July 21, 2026? at 0.13
- 08:08 PM0X0xf231137AaA9A413d9C9429c49D6b43A6e31c5df9-1762202614276$2.00
Bought 22.222221 Yes for Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 14 to July 21, 2026? at 0.09
- 07:41 PM——$7.92
Bought 9 No for Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 14 to July 21, 2026? at 0.88
- 07:36 PMJUjustwant5$100.10
Bought 100.1 No for Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from July 14 to July 21, 2026? at 1
- 07:34 PMWFwfsxfwetrdsf$498.00
Sold 600 No for Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 14 to July 21, 2026? at 0.83
- 07:33 PMVIViscaElBarca$41.50
Sold 50 No for Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 14 to July 21, 2026? at 0.83
- 07:33 PMCRCrypRom$212.55
Bought 1328.42 Yes for Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 14 to July 21, 2026? at 0.16
- 07:31 PMVIViscaElBarca$43.50
Sold 50 No for Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 14 to July 21, 2026? at 0.87
- 07:31 PMCRCrypRom$33.22
Bought 276.81 Yes for Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 14 to July 21, 2026? at 0.12
常見問題
目前市場對「Elon Musk # tweets July 14 - July 21, 2026?」的共識是什麼？
截至最新更新，180-199 以 1,750% 的獲勝機率領跑，其次是 200-219（1,450%），以及 220-239（1,250%）。該市場總成交量已達 $57.8K，顯示出充足的流動性與高交易參與度。