
Dota 2: Team AION vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - European Pro League Group A
核心摘要
根據「Dota 2: Team AION vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - European Pro League Group A」的最新預測市場資料,交易者已形成強烈共識。
目前,Any Player Ultra Kill 以壓倒性的 5,700% 獲勝機率主導市場;Both Teams Beat Roshan 以 5,450% 位居第二,Both Teams Destroy Barracks 以 5,200% 排名第三。該市場的下注量已達 $600,反映出市場的高度關注。
競爭梯隊拆解
為了更好地評估各潛在結果的位置,可依據隱含機率與合約定價將市場劃分為三個明顯的交易梯隊:
🥇 第一梯隊:絕對領跑者
- Any Player Ultra Kill (5,700%):Any Player Ultra Kill 目前擁有最高機率,深受訂單簿青睞。看好該結果的交易者面對的「Buy Yes」合約價為 5,700¢,顯示出市場的高度確信。
🥈 第二梯隊:主要挑戰者
- Both Teams Beat Roshan (5,450%):作為最可行的替代選項,Both Teams Beat Roshan 保持著 5,450% 的成真機率,其「Buy Yes」份額目前成交價為 5,450¢。
- Both Teams Destroy Barracks (5,200%):以 5,200% 的機率位列第三,市場對 Both Teams Destroy Barracks 持謹慎懷疑態度,除非勢頭轉變,否則視其為外圍黑馬。
🥉 第三梯隊:長尾選項(合計約 0%)
在前三名之外,還有大量宏觀變數與冷門結果被持續追蹤。儘管單個機率偏低,但它們是投機交易者的重要對沖:
- 替代選項:包括 Any Player Rampage (5,200%)、Ends in Daytime (5,150%),以及 Ends in Daytime (5,150%)。
- 投機成交:儘管統計機率偏低,像 Ends in Daytime 這類長尾合約仍吸引著可觀的關注。
完整訂單簿與定價面板
下表列出了該預測池中所有結果的合約價格、機率與市場深度的完整拆解:
| 排名 | 預測結果 | 獲勝機率 | 成交量 | 買入 Yes(成本) | 買入 No(成本) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Any Player Ultra Kill | 5700.0% | — | 5700¢ | -5600¢ |
| 2 | Both Teams Beat Roshan | 5450.0% | — | 5450¢ | -5350¢ |
| 3 | Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 5200.0% | — | 5200¢ | -5100¢ |
| 4 | Any Player Rampage | 5200.0% | — | 5200¢ | -5100¢ |
| 5 | Ends in Daytime | 5150.0% | — | 5150¢ | -5050¢ |
| 6 | Ends in Daytime | 5150.0% | — | 5150¢ | -5050¢ |
| 7 | Ends in Daytime | 5150.0% | — | 5150¢ | -5050¢ |
| 8 | O/U 2.5 Games | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 9 | Game Handicap: TS.A (-1.5) vs Team AION (+1.5) | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 10 | Game 2 Winner | 4750.0% | $1 | 4750¢ | -4650¢ |
| 11 | Match Winner | 4450.0% | $599 | 4450¢ | -4350¢ |
| 12 | Game 1 Winner | 3850.0% | — | 3850¢ | -3750¢ |
| 13 | Any Player Ultra Kill | 3250.0% | — | 3250¢ | -3150¢ |
| 14 | Any Player Ultra Kill | 3250.0% | — | 3250¢ | -3150¢ |
| 15 | Both Teams Beat Roshan | 3050.0% | — | 3050¢ | -2950¢ |
| 16 | Both Teams Beat Roshan | 3050.0% | — | 3050¢ | -2950¢ |
| 17 | Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 2800.0% | — | 2800¢ | -2700¢ |
| 18 | Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 2800.0% | — | 2800¢ | -2700¢ |
| 19 | Any Player Rampage | 2550.0% | — | 2550¢ | -2450¢ |
| 20 | Any Player Rampage | 2550.0% | — | 2550¢ | -2450¢ |
裁決規則
This market refers to the Dota 2 match between Team AION and Spirit Academy in the European Pro League Group A, initially scheduled for July 3 at 6:00AM ET.
This market will resolve to "Team AION" if Team AION win the match against Spirit Academy.
This market will resolve to "Spirit Academy" if Spirit Academy win the match against Team AION.
If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins.
If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://www.dotabuff.com. However, if https://www.dotabuff.com has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.
In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.
交易動態
以下是該事件的交易動態。
Jul 3, 2026
- 08:06 AMBAbaxin1990$10.00
Bought 17.543858 Spirit Academy for Dota 2: Team AION vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - European Pro League Group A at 0.57
- 07:37 AMQ1q136084$2.35
Bought 5 Team AION for Dota 2: Team AION vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - European Pro League Group A at 0.47
- 07:15 AM0X0xecdE516A0F74BAf31667c5444b2E8Ba014227B93-1781326379626$1.00
Bought 1.612902 Spirit Academy for Dota 2: Team AION vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - European Pro League Group A at 0.62
- 06:49 AMNInighdozor$3.05
Bought 5 Spirit Academy for Dota 2: Team AION vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - European Pro League Group A at 0.61
- 05:52 AMSYsyn.$95.73
Bought 165.06 Spirit Academy for Dota 2: Team AION vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - European Pro League Group A at 0.58
- 05:51 AMSYsyn.$5.12
Bought 10.24 Spirit Academy for Dota 2: Team AION vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - European Pro League Group A at 0.5
- 05:31 AMSSsssssmm$7.50
Bought 15 Spirit Academy for Dota 2: Team AION vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - European Pro League Group A at 0.5
- 05:30 AMTHthe-fisherking$134.63
Bought 274.76 Team AION for Dota 2: Team AION vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - European Pro League Group A at 0.49
- 05:29 AMSYsyn.$60.00
Bought 100 Spirit Academy for Dota 2: Team AION vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - European Pro League Group A at 0.6
- 05:12 AMREreeyouda$3.00
Bought 4.91803 Spirit Academy for Dota 2: Team AION vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - European Pro League Group A at 0.61
- 04:28 AM——$1.00
Bought 1.333332 Spirit Academy for Dota 2: Team AION vs Spirit Academy - Game 2 Winner at 0.75
常見問題
目前市場對「Dota 2: Team AION vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - European Pro League Group A」的共識是什麼?
截至最新更新,Any Player Ultra Kill 以 5,700% 的獲勝機率領跑,其次是 Both Teams Beat Roshan(5,450%),以及 Both Teams Destroy Barracks(5,200%)。該市場總成交量已達 $600,顯示出充足的流動性與高交易參與度。
