
ODI Series West Indies vs. New Zealand: West Indies vs New Zealand
核心摘要
根據「ODI Series West Indies vs. New Zealand: West Indies vs New Zealand」的最新預測市場資料,交易者已形成強烈共識。
目前,New Zealand 以壓倒性的 60.5% 獲勝機率主導市場;West Indies 以 39.5% 位居第二。該市場的下注量已達 $176.1K,反映出市場的高度關注。
競爭梯隊拆解
為了更好地評估各潛在結果的位置,可依據隱含機率與合約定價將市場劃分為三個明顯的交易梯隊:
🥇 第一梯隊:絕對領跑者
- New Zealand (60.5%):New Zealand 目前擁有最高機率,深受訂單簿青睞。看好該結果的交易者面對的「Buy Yes」合約價為 61¢,顯示出市場的高度確信。
🥈 第二梯隊:主要挑戰者
- West Indies (39.5%):作為最可行的替代選項,West Indies 保持著 39.5% 的成真機率,其「Buy Yes」份額目前成交價為 40¢。
完整訂單簿與定價面板
下表列出了該預測池中所有結果的合約價格、機率與市場深度的完整拆解:
| 排名 | 預測結果 | 獲勝機率 | 成交量 | 買入 Yes(成本) | 買入 No(成本) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | New Zealand | 60.5% | — | 61¢ | 40¢ |
| 2 | West Indies | 39.5% | — | 40¢ | 61¢ |
裁決規則
This market refers to the cricket match between West Indies and New Zealand scheduled for July 16 2026 in ODI Series West Indies vs. New Zealand.
This market resolves according to the finalized match result as published by https://www.espncricinfo.com/.
DLS/DRS, over-rate penalties, forfeit/walkover, or any other on-field ruling that leads the competition to declare a winner are treated as ordinary wins.
If the match ends tied and the playing conditions provide an on-field tiebreak (e.g., Super Over), the winner determined by that tiebreak will be used for resolution. If the match ends tied and no on-field tiebreak is used or available under the playing conditions (e.g., group-stage ODI with no Super Over), the market will resolve 50-50.
If the match is postponed/rescheduled, the market remains open until the listed fixture is completed. If the match is permanently canceled or abandoned or otherwise is completed without a winner, the market resolves 50-50.
The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.
AI 估值分析:發現市場錯誤定價與 EV 差
人群共識與投機成交塑造了更宏觀的預測市場,而我們的量化演算法提供了資料驅動的反向視角。透過分析基本面訊號、底層趨勢與歷史分布,我們的 AI 估值模型為每個結果獨立測算出一個「公允價值」機率。
將該公允價值與當前交易價值對比,可揭示出重大背離——即期望值(EV)差。正 EV 差代表統計上被低估的結果,而負 EV 差則提示市場可能存在反應過度。
| Market | Trade Value | Fair Value | EV Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| New Zealand | 60.5% | 60.5% | 0.0% |
| West Indies | 39.5% | 39.5% | 0.0% |
交易動態
以下是該事件的交易動態。
Jul 16, 2026
- 08:10 PMEMemmy85$142.58
Sold 195.31 New Zealand for ODI Series West Indies vs. New Zealand: West Indies vs New Zealand at 0.73
- 08:09 PMCACasey259$1.00
Bought 1.315787 New Zealand for ODI Series West Indies vs. New Zealand: West Indies vs New Zealand at 0.76
- 08:09 PMSPspyman$77.29
Bought 101.697366 New Zealand for ODI Series West Indies vs. New Zealand: West Indies vs New Zealand at 0.76
- 08:08 PMBWbwave10$1.00
Bought 1.35135 New Zealand for ODI Series West Indies vs. New Zealand: West Indies vs New Zealand at 0.74
- 08:08 PMMImidwicket72$1,301.30
Bought 5005 West Indies for ODI Series West Indies vs. New Zealand: West Indies vs New Zealand at 0.26
- 08:07 PMMImidwicket72$389.35
Bought 1557.4 West Indies for ODI Series West Indies vs. New Zealand: West Indies vs New Zealand at 0.25
- 08:06 PMMImidwicket72$8.65
Bought 36.05 West Indies for ODI Series West Indies vs. New Zealand: West Indies vs New Zealand at 0.24
- 08:06 PMGRgrandculp$10.80
Bought 45 West Indies for ODI Series West Indies vs. New Zealand: West Indies vs New Zealand at 0.24
- 08:06 PMGRgrandculp$9.60
Bought 40 West Indies for ODI Series West Indies vs. New Zealand: West Indies vs New Zealand at 0.24
- 08:06 PM3838791873984189$24.00
Bought 100 West Indies for ODI Series West Indies vs. New Zealand: West Indies vs New Zealand at 0.24
- 08:06 PM3838791873984189$24.00
Bought 100 West Indies for ODI Series West Indies vs. New Zealand: West Indies vs New Zealand at 0.24
- 08:06 PMLIlifeisgamespower$6.94
Sold 30.16 West Indies for ODI Series West Indies vs. New Zealand: West Indies vs New Zealand at 0.23
正在押注該事件的鯨魚錢包
常見問題
目前市場對「ODI Series West Indies vs. New Zealand: West Indies vs New Zealand」的共識是什麼?
截至最新更新,New Zealand 以 60.5% 的獲勝機率領跑,其次是 West Indies(39.5%)。該市場總成交量已達 $176.1K,顯示出充足的流動性與高交易參與度。
AI 公允價值與即時市場交易價值有何不同?
即時市場交易價值反映的是公眾情緒、訂單簿動能與投機資金。我們的 AI 公允價值則由量化模型獨立計算,剔除情緒炒作、專注底層數據。兩者出現顯著背離時即形成 EV 差,提示市場對某個結果可能存在錯誤定價。
