Claude Fable 5 restored for US customers by…?

根據「Claude Fable 5 restored for US customers by…?」的最新預測市場資料，交易者已形成強烈共識。

目前，December 31 以壓倒性的 96.9% 獲勝機率主導市場；August 31 以 96.2% 位居第二，July 31 以 85.8% 排名第三。該市場的下注量已達 $3.7M，反映出市場的高度關注。

為了更好地評估各潛在結果的位置，可依據隱含機率與合約定價將市場劃分為三個明顯的交易梯隊：

🥇 第一梯隊：絕對領跑者

• December 31 (96.9%)：December 31 目前擁有最高機率，深受訂單簿青睞。看好該結果的交易者面對的「Buy Yes」合約價為 97¢，顯示出市場的高度確信。僅該合約就已產生 $158.9K 的成交量。

🥈 第二梯隊：主要挑戰者

• August 31 (96.2%)：作為最可行的替代選項，August 31 保持著 96.2% 的成真機率，其「Buy Yes」份額目前成交價為 96¢。
• July 31 (85.8%)：以 85.8% 的機率位列第三，市場對 July 31 持謹慎懷疑態度，除非勢頭轉變，否則視其為外圍黑馬。

🥉 第三梯隊：長尾選項（合計約 0%）

在前三名之外，還有大量宏觀變數與冷門結果被持續追蹤。儘管單個機率偏低，但它們是投機交易者的重要對沖：

• 替代選項：包括 July 17 (74.5%)、July 10 (63.5%)，以及 July 1 (25%)。
• 投機成交：儘管統計機率偏低，像 June 30 這類長尾合約仍吸引著可觀的關注。

On June 9, 2026, Anthropic released the AI model “Claude Fable 5” to the general public. On June 12, 2026, Anthropic suspended access to the specified model in response to a directive from the US government.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic restores access to “Claude Fable 5,” also known as “Claude Mythos,” or a model confirmed to be the same model to US customers by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

A qualifying model must be named "Claude Fable 5” or “Claude Mythos” (e.g., Claude Mythos 1, Claude Mythos 5, Claude Mythos X, would count), or be confirmed by Anthropic or by a consensus of credible reporting to be the same model as released by Anthropic on June 9, 2026.

Products labeled as Claude Haiku, Sonnet, and Opus 4.7/5.0 or similar will not count for this market's resolution unless they are confirmed to be the same model released by Anthropic on June 9, 2026.

For this market to resolve to "Yes," the qualifying model (as defined above) must be restored to public accessibility within the United States, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The restoration must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to US customers. If an otherwise qualifying restoration restricts access to certain customers based on nationality, whether geographically inside or outside of the US, that restoration will still qualify.

If a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and labeled with the relevant version name within the company’s official website, this will qualify as “publicly announced”. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public under the rules will not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

人群共識與投機成交塑造了更宏觀的預測市場，而我們的量化演算法提供了資料驅動的反向視角。透過分析基本面訊號、底層趨勢與歷史分布，我們的 AI 估值模型為每個結果獨立測算出一個「公允價值」機率。

將該公允價值與當前交易價值對比，可揭示出重大背離——即期望值（EV）差。正 EV 差代表統計上被低估的結果，而負 EV 差則提示市場可能存在反應過度。

頂級 AI Alpha 與錯誤定價套利機會

根據最新一輪資料模型測算，以下幾個關鍵合約存在顯著偏離：

• 最被高估的結果：July 1 當前交易價為 25%，但我們的 AI 測算其公允價值僅為 1%，形成 -24% 的較大負 EV 差，表明人群可能過度炒作該結果、把溢價推得過高。
• 最佳價值標的（最高 EV）：我們的模型將 July 17 識別為盤面上最具價值的機會。市場僅給予其 74.5% 的交易機率，而我們 AI 的公允價值評估為 87.2%——形成可觀的 +12.7% EV 差。
• 被忽視的黑馬：其他值得注意的偏離包括 June 30（EV 差：+3.4%）以及 July 10（EV 差：+3.2%）。儘管我們的預測模型給予更強的統計支撐，這些長尾機會仍被即時訂單簿大幅低估。