Clacton by-election: 2nd place

根據「Clacton by-election: 2nd place」的最新預測市場資料，交易者已形成強烈共識。

目前，Tony Mack 以壓倒性的 4,650% 獲勝機率主導市場；Count Binface 以 4,550% 位居第二，Andrew Pemberton 以 4,400% 排名第三。該市場的下注量已達 $1.4K，反映出市場的高度關注。

為了更好地評估各潛在結果的位置，可依據隱含機率與合約定價將市場劃分為三個明顯的交易梯隊：

🥇 第一梯隊：絕對領跑者

• Tony Mack (4,650%)：Tony Mack 目前擁有最高機率，深受訂單簿青睞。看好該結果的交易者面對的「Buy Yes」合約價為 4,650¢，顯示出市場的高度確信。僅該合約就已產生 $55 的成交量。

🥈 第二梯隊：主要挑戰者

• Count Binface (4,550%)：作為最可行的替代選項，Count Binface 保持著 4,550% 的成真機率，其「Buy Yes」份額目前成交價為 4,550¢。
• Andrew Pemberton (4,400%)：以 4,400% 的機率位列第三，市場對 Andrew Pemberton 持謹慎懷疑態度，除非勢頭轉變，否則視其為外圍黑馬。

🥉 第三梯隊：長尾選項（合計約 0%）

在前三名之外，還有大量宏觀變數與冷門結果被持續追蹤。儘管單個機率偏低，但它們是投機交易者的重要對沖：

• 替代選項：包括 Nigel Farage (305%)、Matthew Bensilum (170%)，以及 Giles Watling (110%)。
• 投機成交：儘管統計機率偏低，像 Jovan Owusu-Nepaul 這類長尾合約仍吸引著可觀的關注。

A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is expected to be held soon following the announced resignation of incumbent Nigel Farage.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election.

The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' listed names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).