California Public Campaign Financing Proposition

根據「California Public Campaign Financing Proposition」的最新預測市場資料，交易者已形成強烈共識。

目前，No 以壓倒性的 5,350% 獲勝機率主導市場；Yes 以 4,650% 位居第二。該市場的下注量已達 —，反映出市場的高度關注。

為了更好地評估各潛在結果的位置，可依據隱含機率與合約定價將市場劃分為三個明顯的交易梯隊：

🥇 第一梯隊：絕對領跑者

• No (5,350%)：No 目前擁有最高機率，深受訂單簿青睞。看好該結果的交易者面對的「Buy Yes」合約價為 5,350¢，顯示出市場的高度確信。

🥈 第二梯隊：主要挑戰者

• Yes (4,650%)：作為最可行的替代選項，Yes 保持著 4,650% 的成真機率，其「Buy Yes」份額目前成交價為 4,650¢。

Proposition 4 is a California ballot measure currently scheduled for voting on November 3, 2026. It would give California governments the authority to set up public financing systems for state and local political candidates.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the specified ballot measure is approved by a majority of voters at the California statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of California, including the California Secretary of State (https://www.sos.ca.gov/).