Bitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET

$572 Vol
2026年7月1日
Active
機率趨勢
No trend data

核心摘要

根據「Bitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET」的最新預測市場資料，交易者已形成強烈共識。

目前，Up 以壓倒性的 7,150% 獲勝機率主導市場；Down 以 2,850% 位居第二。該市場的下注量已達 $572，反映出市場的高度關注。

競爭梯隊拆解

為了更好地評估各潛在結果的位置，可依據隱含機率與合約定價將市場劃分為三個明顯的交易梯隊：

🥇 第一梯隊：絕對領跑者

  • Up (7,150%)：Up 目前擁有最高機率，深受訂單簿青睞。看好該結果的交易者面對的「Buy Yes」合約價為 7,150¢，顯示出市場的高度確信。

🥈 第二梯隊：主要挑戰者

  • Down (2,850%)：作為最可行的替代選項，Down 保持著 2,850% 的成真機率，其「Buy Yes」份額目前成交價為 2,850¢。

完整訂單簿與定價面板

下表列出了該預測池中所有結果的合約價格、機率與市場深度的完整拆解：

排名預測結果獲勝機率成交量買入 Yes（成本）買入 No（成本）
1Up7150.0%—7150¢-7050¢
2Down2850.0%—2850¢-2750¢

裁決規則

This market will resolve to "Up" if the Bitcoin price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down".

The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the BTC/USD data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/btc-usd.

Please note that this market is about the price according to Chainlink data stream BTC/USD, not according to other sources or spot markets.

交易動態

以下是該事件的交易動態。

Jul 1, 2026

  • 05:14 AM
    PEPerfectly-Spherical-Gum-Boat
    $1.00

    Bought 1.960783 Down for Bitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET at 0.51

  • 05:14 AM
    HOhomaiss
    $2.50

    Bought 5 Up for Bitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET at 0.5

  • 05:14 AM
    0X0xd8793E129D4b0Ff79610408f04324d7D39633fF6-1781467922162
    $100.00

    Bought 200 Up for Bitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET at 0.5

  • 05:14 AM
    0X0xd8793E129D4b0Ff79610408f04324d7D39633fF6-1781467922162
    $100.00

    Bought 200 Up for Bitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET at 0.5

  • 05:14 AM
    ——
    $9.00

    Bought 18 Up for Bitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET at 0.5

  • 05:14 AM
    SYsynthesisAB
    $100.00

    Bought 196.07843 Down for Bitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET at 0.51

  • 05:14 AM
    YUyuyaaad
    $3.00

    Bought 5.882351 Down for Bitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET at 0.51

  • 05:14 AM
    ARArtigo
    $4.00

    Bought 7.843136 Down for Bitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET at 0.51

  • 05:14 AM
    0X0x3E36412B87cf77842E6bd780608ad750655D0f49-1778763637578
    $2.00

    Bought 4 Up for Bitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET at 0.5

  • 05:13 AM
    ——
    $20.00

    Bought 39.215685 Down for Bitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET at 0.51

  • 05:13 AM
    0X0x60144E4878F483172329afa132995660a52c5084-1772849210569
    $3.00

    Bought 6 Up for Bitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET at 0.5

  • 05:13 AM
    0X0x5DD559bB72F616591C10053519da7efD3D01B03E-1779910944120
    $1.00

    Bought 1.960783 Down for Bitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET at 0.51

正在押注該事件的鯨魚錢包

561
0x5685…1094
Event PnL
+$0.00
Volume
$1,043.96
Positions
UpUp
W12
W1ningMan
Event PnL
+$0.00
Volume
$898.89
Positions
UpUp
SY3
synthesisAB
Event PnL
+$0.00
Volume
$736.62
Positions
DownDown
BO4
Bonereaper
Event PnL
+$0.00
Volume
$596.36
Positions
DownDownUp+1
WU5
wuhua2525
Event PnL
+$0.00
Volume
$565.63
Positions
DownDown
D86
0xd879…2162
Event PnL
+$0.00
Volume
$400.00
Positions
UpUp
F97
0xf9b7…a37c
Event PnL
+$0.00
Volume
$397.27
Positions
UpUp
568
0x568b…0b3b
Event PnL
+$0.00
Volume
$382.39
Positions
UpUp

常見問題

目前市場對「Bitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET」的共識是什麼？

截至最新更新，Up 以 7,150% 的獲勝機率領跑，其次是 Down（2,850%）。該市場總成交量已達 $572，顯示出充足的流動性與高交易參與度。

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