Bitcoin Up or Down on July 14?

$60.6K Vol
2026年7月14日
Active
機率趨勢
Up 53.5%
Down 46.5%

核心摘要

根據「Bitcoin Up or Down on July 14?」的最新預測市場資料，交易者已形成強烈共識。

目前，Up 以壓倒性的 5,350% 獲勝機率主導市場；Down 以 4,650% 位居第二。該市場的下注量已達 $60.6K，反映出市場的高度關注。

競爭梯隊拆解

為了更好地評估各潛在結果的位置，可依據隱含機率與合約定價將市場劃分為三個明顯的交易梯隊：

🥇 第一梯隊：絕對領跑者

  • Up (5,350%)：Up 目前擁有最高機率，深受訂單簿青睞。看好該結果的交易者面對的「Buy Yes」合約價為 5,350¢，顯示出市場的高度確信。

🥈 第二梯隊：主要挑戰者

  • Down (4,650%)：作為最可行的替代選項，Down 保持著 4,650% 的成真機率，其「Buy Yes」份額目前成交價為 4,650¢。

完整訂單簿與定價面板

下表列出了該預測池中所有結果的合約價格、機率與市場深度的完整拆解：

排名預測結果獲勝機率成交量買入 Yes（成本）買入 No（成本）
1Up5350.0%—5350¢-5250¢
2Down4650.0%—4650¢-4550¢

裁決規則

This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Jul 13 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Jul 14 '26 12:00 ET candle.

This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Jul 13 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Jul 14 '26 12:00 ET candle.

If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50.

The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar.

Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.

交易動態

以下是該事件的交易動態。

Jul 13, 2026

  • 08:24 PM
    BUBullishbullshii
    $2.18

    Sold 6.06 Up for Bitcoin Up or Down on July 14? at 0.36

  • 08:20 PM
    OKOkanlol
    $153.56

    Sold 451.64 Up for Bitcoin Up or Down on July 14? at 0.34

  • 08:19 PM
    OKOkanlol
    $104.23

    Bought 297.8 Up for Bitcoin Up or Down on July 14? at 0.35

  • 08:17 PM
    MGmghkslz
    $1.84

    Bought 2.875 Down for Bitcoin Up or Down on July 14? at 0.64

  • 08:13 PM
    OKOkanlol
    $60.00

    Bought 153.846152 Up for Bitcoin Up or Down on July 14? at 0.39

  • 08:11 PM
    TRTrader120
    $1.00

    Bought 2.564101 Up for Bitcoin Up or Down on July 14? at 0.39

  • 08:05 PM
    0X0x93cdBFCc003D7791720D8656Cb3Dd3749dd38323-1764419908942
    $1.50

    Sold 2.59 Down for Bitcoin Up or Down on July 14? at 0.58

  • 08:05 PM
    VEvedaresearch.btc
    $3.30

    Sold 5.41 Down for Bitcoin Up or Down on July 14? at 0.61

  • 08:04 PM
    ——
    $1.00

    Bought 1.612902 Down for Bitcoin Up or Down on July 14? at 0.62

  • 07:59 PM
    VEvedaresearch.btc
    $0.30

    Sold 0.49 Down for Bitcoin Up or Down on July 14? at 0.62

  • 07:59 PM
    JSJSMongolia
    $2.47

    Bought 6.5 Up for Bitcoin Up or Down on July 14? at 0.38

  • 07:59 PM
    5F5f5a
    $11.16

    Sold 18 Down for Bitcoin Up or Down on July 14? at 0.62

正在押注該事件的鯨魚錢包

FR1
fred4332
Event PnL
+$2,682.10
Volume
$25,206.32
Positions
Up
GO2
gobblewobble
Event PnL
-$1,428.99
Volume
$7,436.40
Positions
Down
CO3
coinman2
Event PnL
-$624.94
Volume
$5,796.15
Positions
Down
TR4
trulyalya1
Event PnL
-$348.98
Volume
$3,034.61
Positions
Down
CO5
coinfilippe
Event PnL
-$401.63
Volume
$2,714.31
Positions
Down
BA6
Babe
Event PnL
-$173.95
Volume
$1,656.65
Positions
Down
LU7
luckyandPluckyCar
Event PnL
-$187.80
Volume
$1,639.99
Positions
Down
ZZ8
Zzzz87
Event PnL
+$143.51
Volume
$1,470.99
Positions
Up

常見問題

目前市場對「Bitcoin Up or Down on July 14?」的共識是什麼？

截至最新更新，Up 以 5,350% 的獲勝機率領跑，其次是 Down（4,650%）。該市場總成交量已達 $60.6K，顯示出充足的流動性與高交易參與度。

免費開始