Bitcoin above ___ on July 7?
核心摘要
根據「Bitcoin above ___ on July 7?」的最新預測市場資料，交易者已形成強烈共識。
目前，48,000 以壓倒性的 9,970% 獲勝機率主導市場；50,000 以 9,900% 位居第二，52,000 以 9,860% 排名第三。該市場的下注量已達 $61K，反映出市場的高度關注。
競爭梯隊拆解
為了更好地評估各潛在結果的位置，可依據隱含機率與合約定價將市場劃分為三個明顯的交易梯隊：
🥇 第一梯隊：絕對領跑者
- 48,000 (9,970%)：48,000 目前擁有最高機率，深受訂單簿青睞。看好該結果的交易者面對的「Buy Yes」合約價為 9,970¢，顯示出市場的高度確信。僅該合約就已產生 $419 的成交量。
🥈 第二梯隊：主要挑戰者
- 50,000 (9,900%)：作為最可行的替代選項，50,000 保持著 9,900% 的成真機率，其「Buy Yes」份額目前成交價為 9,900¢。
- 52,000 (9,860%)：以 9,860% 的機率位列第三，市場對 52,000 持謹慎懷疑態度，除非勢頭轉變，否則視其為外圍黑馬。
🥉 第三梯隊：長尾選項（合計約 0%）
在前三名之外，還有大量宏觀變數與冷門結果被持續追蹤。儘管單個機率偏低，但它們是投機交易者的重要對沖：
- 替代選項：包括 54,000 (9,775%)、56,000 (9,470%)，以及 58,000 (8,350%)。
- 投機成交：儘管統計機率偏低，像 60,000 這類長尾合約仍吸引著可觀的關注。
完整訂單簿與定價面板
下表列出了該預測池中所有結果的合約價格、機率與市場深度的完整拆解：
| 排名 | 預測結果 | 獲勝機率 | 成交量 | 買入 Yes（成本） | 買入 No（成本） |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 48,000 | 9970.0% | $419 | 9970¢ | -9870¢ |
| 2 | 50,000 | 9900.0% | $5.6K | 9900¢ | -9800¢ |
| 3 | 52,000 | 9860.0% | $10.2K | 9860¢ | -9760¢ |
| 4 | 54,000 | 9775.0% | $7.0K | 9775¢ | -9675¢ |
| 5 | 56,000 | 9470.0% | $4.4K | 9470¢ | -9370¢ |
| 6 | 58,000 | 8350.0% | $7.8K | 8350¢ | -8250¢ |
| 7 | 60,000 | 6000.0% | $10.0K | 6000¢ | -5900¢ |
| 8 | 62,000 | 2950.0% | $1.7K | 2950¢ | -2850¢ |
| 9 | 64,000 | 850.0% | $2.0K | 850¢ | -750¢ |
| 10 | 66,000 | 370.0% | $10.8K | 370¢ | -270¢ |
| 11 | 68,000 | 105.0% | $1.1K | 105¢ | -5¢ |
裁決規則
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar.
Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.
交易動態
以下是該事件的交易動態。
Jul 1, 2026
- 09:03 PMROronyrocks$1.76
Sold 8 No for Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on July 7? at 0.22
- 08:39 PMTOtomcohen$6.00
Bought 24 Yes for Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on July 7? at 0.25
- 08:22 PMRARami.666$0.80
Sold 80.17 Yes for Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on July 7? at 0.01
- 08:20 PMRARami.666$0.38
Sold 19.2 Yes for Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on July 7? at 0.02
- 08:17 PM0X0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452$48.50
Bought 50 Yes for Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on July 7? at 0.97
- 08:17 PM0X0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452$48.50
Bought 50 Yes for Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on July 7? at 0.97
- 08:17 PM0X0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452$48.50
Bought 50 Yes for Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on July 7? at 0.97
- 08:17 PM0X0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452$48.50
Bought 50 Yes for Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on July 7? at 0.97
- 08:17 PM0X0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452$48.50
Bought 50 Yes for Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on July 7? at 0.97
- 08:17 PM0X0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452$48.50
Bought 50 Yes for Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on July 7? at 0.97
- 08:16 PM0X0x56f6bf6B793713C050Fd02147a45b563Bb4D8eFa$0.05
Bought 5 Yes for Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on July 7? at 0.01
- 08:15 PM0X0x56f6bf6B793713C050Fd02147a45b563Bb4D8eFa$0.10
Bought 5 Yes for Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on July 7? at 0.02
常見問題
目前市場對「Bitcoin above ___ on July 7?」的共識是什麼？
截至最新更新，48,000 以 9,970% 的獲勝機率領跑，其次是 50,000（9,900%），以及 52,000（9,860%）。該市場總成交量已達 $61K，顯示出充足的流動性與高交易參與度。