Bitcoin above ___ on July 6?
核心摘要
根據「Bitcoin above ___ on July 6?」的最新預測市場資料，交易者已形成強烈共識。
目前，52,000 以壓倒性的 9,945% 獲勝機率主導市場；50,000 以 9,930% 位居第二，54,000 以 9,930% 排名第三。該市場的下注量已達 $57.6K，反映出市場的高度關注。
競爭梯隊拆解
為了更好地評估各潛在結果的位置，可依據隱含機率與合約定價將市場劃分為三個明顯的交易梯隊：
🥇 第一梯隊：絕對領跑者
- 52,000 (9,945%)：52,000 目前擁有最高機率，深受訂單簿青睞。看好該結果的交易者面對的「Buy Yes」合約價為 9,945¢，顯示出市場的高度確信。僅該合約就已產生 $9.6K 的成交量。
🥈 第二梯隊：主要挑戰者
- 50,000 (9,930%)：作為最可行的替代選項，50,000 保持著 9,930% 的成真機率，其「Buy Yes」份額目前成交價為 9,930¢。
- 54,000 (9,930%)：以 9,930% 的機率位列第三，市場對 54,000 持謹慎懷疑態度，除非勢頭轉變，否則視其為外圍黑馬。
🥉 第三梯隊：長尾選項（合計約 0%）
在前三名之外，還有大量宏觀變數與冷門結果被持續追蹤。儘管單個機率偏低，但它們是投機交易者的重要對沖：
- 替代選項：包括 56,000 (9,900%)、58,000 (9,695%)，以及 60,000 (8,300%)。
- 投機成交：儘管統計機率偏低，像 62,000 這類長尾合約仍吸引著可觀的關注。
完整訂單簿與定價面板
下表列出了該預測池中所有結果的合約價格、機率與市場深度的完整拆解：
| 排名 | 預測結果 | 獲勝機率 | 成交量 | 買入 Yes（成本） | 買入 No（成本） |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 52,000 | 9945.0% | $9.6K | 9945¢ | -9845¢ |
| 2 | 50,000 | 9930.0% | $4.9K | 9930¢ | -9830¢ |
| 3 | 54,000 | 9930.0% | $5.1K | 9930¢ | -9830¢ |
| 4 | 56,000 | 9900.0% | $9.1K | 9900¢ | -9800¢ |
| 5 | 58,000 | 9695.0% | $8.2K | 9695¢ | -9595¢ |
| 6 | 60,000 | 8300.0% | $4.5K | 8300¢ | -8200¢ |
| 7 | 62,000 | 4250.0% | $3.6K | 4250¢ | -4150¢ |
| 8 | 64,000 | 930.0% | $4.2K | 930¢ | -830¢ |
| 9 | 66,000 | 185.0% | $6.0K | 185¢ | -85¢ |
| 10 | 68,000 | 80.0% | $735 | 80¢ | 20¢ |
| 11 | 70,000 | 75.0% | $1.5K | 75¢ | 25¢ |
裁決規則
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar.
Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.
交易動態
以下是該事件的交易動態。
Jul 2, 2026
- 08:33 PM0X0x56f6bf6B793713C050Fd02147a45b563Bb4D8eFa$0.05
Bought 5 Yes for Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on July 6? at 0.01
- 08:32 PM0X0x56f6bf6B793713C050Fd02147a45b563Bb4D8eFa$0.05
Bought 5 Yes for Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on July 6? at 0.01
- 08:32 PM0X0x56f6bf6B793713C050Fd02147a45b563Bb4D8eFa$0.10
Bought 5 Yes for Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on July 6? at 0.02
- 08:31 PM0X0x56f6bf6B793713C050Fd02147a45b563Bb4D8eFa$0.90
Bought 9 Yes for Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on July 6? at 0.1
- 08:30 PM0X0x56f6bf6B793713C050Fd02147a45b563Bb4D8eFa$2.73
Bought 7 Yes for Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on July 6? at 0.39
- 08:29 PM0X0x56f6bf6B793713C050Fd02147a45b563Bb4D8eFa$3.22
Bought 14 No for Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on July 6? at 0.23
- 08:28 PM0X0x56f6bf6B793713C050Fd02147a45b563Bb4D8eFa$0.30
Bought 5 No for Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on July 6? at 0.06
- 08:26 PMROronyrocks$3.00
Bought 15 No for Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on July 6? at 0.2
- 08:22 PM0X0x56f6bf6B793713C050Fd02147a45b563Bb4D8eFa$0.10
Bought 5 No for Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on July 6? at 0.02
- 08:20 PMEGEgenchango7347$1.00
Bought 2.702701 Yes for Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on July 6? at 0.37
- 08:19 PM0X0x56f6bf6B793713C050Fd02147a45b563Bb4D8eFa$0.05
Bought 5 No for Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on July 6? at 0.01
- 08:19 PM0X0x56f6bf6B793713C050Fd02147a45b563Bb4D8eFa$0.05
Bought 5 No for Will the price of Bitcoin be above $52,000 on July 6? at 0.01
正在押注該事件的鯨魚錢包
常見問題
目前市場對「Bitcoin above ___ on July 6?」的共識是什麼？
截至最新更新，52,000 以 9,945% 的獲勝機率領跑，其次是 50,000（9,930%），以及 54,000（9,930%）。該市場總成交量已達 $57.6K，顯示出充足的流動性與高交易參與度。