AZ-01 Republican Primary Margin of Victory

根據「AZ-01 Republican Primary Margin of Victory」的最新預測市場資料，交易者已形成強烈共識。

目前，Feely 20–25% 以壓倒性的 4,450% 獲勝機率主導市場；Feely 25%+ 以 4,400% 位居第二，Feely 15–20% 以 4,400% 排名第三。該市場的下注量已達 —，反映出市場的高度關注。

為了更好地評估各潛在結果的位置，可依據隱含機率與合約定價將市場劃分為三個明顯的交易梯隊：

🥇 第一梯隊：絕對領跑者

• Feely 20–25% (4,450%)：Feely 20–25% 目前擁有最高機率，深受訂單簿青睞。看好該結果的交易者面對的「Buy Yes」合約價為 4,450¢，顯示出市場的高度確信。

🥈 第二梯隊：主要挑戰者

• Feely 25%+ (4,400%)：作為最可行的替代選項，Feely 25%+ 保持著 4,400% 的成真機率，其「Buy Yes」份額目前成交價為 4,400¢。
• Feely 15–20% (4,400%)：以 4,400% 的機率位列第三，市場對 Feely 15–20% 持謹慎懷疑態度，除非勢頭轉變，否則視其為外圍黑馬。

🥉 第三梯隊：長尾選項（合計約 0%）

在前三名之外，還有大量宏觀變數與冷門結果被持續追蹤。儘管單個機率偏低，但它們是投機交易者的重要對沖：

• 替代選項：包括 Feely 10–15% (4,400%)、Feely 5–10% (4,400%)，以及 Feely <5% (4,400%)。
• 投機成交：儘管統計機率偏低，像 Chaplik <5% 這類長尾合約仍吸引著可觀的關注。

The AZ-01 Republican primary runoff election is scheduled for August 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the AZ-01 Republican Primary election.

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending).

If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”

This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.

If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Arizona, such as official statewide results published by the Arizona Secretary of State (https://azsos.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.