2026 MLB Draft: Player to be Drafted 6th Overall

2026年7月13日
Active
機率趨勢
Grady Emerson 49.5%
Roch Cholowsky 49.0%
Vahn Lackey 49.0%
Jackson Flora 49.0%
Jacob Lombard 49.0%

核心摘要

根據「2026 MLB Draft: Player to be Drafted 6th Overall」的最新預測市場資料,交易者已形成強烈共識。

目前,Grady Emerson 以壓倒性的 4,950% 獲勝機率主導市場;Roch Cholowsky 以 4,950% 位居第二,Vahn Lackey 以 4,950% 排名第三。該市場的下注量已達 —,反映出市場的高度關注。

競爭梯隊拆解

為了更好地評估各潛在結果的位置,可依據隱含機率與合約定價將市場劃分為三個明顯的交易梯隊:

🥇 第一梯隊:絕對領跑者

  • Grady Emerson (4,950%):Grady Emerson 目前擁有最高機率,深受訂單簿青睞。看好該結果的交易者面對的「Buy Yes」合約價為 4,950¢,顯示出市場的高度確信。

🥈 第二梯隊:主要挑戰者

  • Roch Cholowsky (4,950%):作為最可行的替代選項,Roch Cholowsky 保持著 4,950% 的成真機率,其「Buy Yes」份額目前成交價為 4,950¢。
  • Vahn Lackey (4,950%):以 4,950% 的機率位列第三,市場對 Vahn Lackey 持謹慎懷疑態度,除非勢頭轉變,否則視其為外圍黑馬。

🥉 第三梯隊:長尾選項(合計約 0%)

在前三名之外,還有大量宏觀變數與冷門結果被持續追蹤。儘管單個機率偏低,但它們是投機交易者的重要對沖:

  • 替代選項:包括 Jackson Flora (4,950%)、Jacob Lombard (4,950%),以及 Eric Booth Jr. (4,950%)。
  • 投機成交:儘管統計機率偏低,像 Drew Burress 這類長尾合約仍吸引著可觀的關注。

完整訂單簿與定價面板

下表列出了該預測池中所有結果的合約價格、機率與市場深度的完整拆解:

排名預測結果獲勝機率成交量買入 Yes(成本)買入 No(成本)
1Grady Emerson4950.0%4950¢-4850¢
2Roch Cholowsky4950.0%4950¢-4850¢
3Vahn Lackey4950.0%4950¢-4850¢
4Jackson Flora4950.0%4950¢-4850¢
5Jacob Lombard4950.0%4950¢-4850¢
6Eric Booth Jr.4950.0%4950¢-4850¢
7Drew Burress4950.0%4950¢-4850¢
8Gio Rojas4950.0%4950¢-4850¢
9Justin Lebron4950.0%4950¢-4850¢
10Tyler Bell4950.0%4950¢-4850¢
11Ryder Helfrick4950.0%4950¢-4850¢
12Derek Curiel4950.0%4950¢-4850¢
13Trevor Condon4950.0%4950¢-4850¢
14Chris Hacopian4950.0%4950¢-4850¢
15Cameron Flukey4950.0%4950¢-4850¢
16Jared Grindlinger4950.0%4950¢-4850¢
17Hunter Dietz4950.0%4950¢-4850¢
18Ace Reese4950.0%4950¢-4850¢
19AJ Gracia4950.0%4950¢-4850¢
20Liam Peterson4950.0%4950¢-4850¢
21Bo Lowrance4950.0%4950¢-4850¢
22Sawyer Strosnider4950.0%4950¢-4850¢
23Brody Bumila4950.0%4950¢-4850¢
24Carson Bolemon4950.0%4950¢-4850¢
25Tegan Kuhns4950.0%4950¢-4850¢
26Cole Carlon4950.0%4950¢-4850¢
27Cole Prosek4950.0%4950¢-4850¢
28Daniel Jackson4950.0%4950¢-4850¢
29Aiden Robbins4950.0%4950¢-4850¢
30Zion Rose4950.0%4950¢-4850¢
31Logan Reddemann4950.0%4950¢-4850¢
32Aiden Ruiz4950.0%4950¢-4850¢
33Caden Sorrell4950.0%4950¢-4850¢
34Landon Thome4950.0%4950¢-4850¢
35Cade Townsend4950.0%4950¢-4850¢
36Mason Edwards4950.0%4950¢-4850¢
37Taj Marchand4950.0%4950¢-4850¢
38Gavin Grahovac4950.0%4950¢-4850¢
39James Clark4950.0%4950¢-4850¢
40Taylor Rabe4950.0%4950¢-4850¢
41Eric Becker4950.0%4950¢-4850¢
42Logan Hughes4950.0%4950¢-4850¢
43Coleman Borthwick4950.0%4950¢-4850¢
44Jack Radel4950.0%4950¢-4850¢
45Logan Schmidt4950.0%4950¢-4850¢
46Will Brick4950.0%4950¢-4850¢
47Chris Rembert4950.0%4950¢-4850¢
48Jarren Advincula4950.0%4950¢-4850¢
49Chase Brunson4950.0%4950¢-4850¢
50Andrew Williamson4950.0%4950¢-4850¢
51Tyler Spangler4950.0%4950¢-4850¢
52Archer Horn4950.0%4950¢-4850¢
53Connor Comeau4950.0%4950¢-4850¢
54Jensen Hirschkorn4950.0%4950¢-4850¢
55Kaden Waechter4950.0%4950¢-4850¢
56Ben Blair4950.0%4950¢-4850¢
57Jake Brown4950.0%4950¢-4850¢
58Ty Head4950.0%4950¢-4850¢
59Rocco Maniscalco4900.0%4900¢-4800¢
60Wes Mendes4900.0%4900¢-4800¢

裁決規則

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed player is drafted sixth overall in the 2026 MLB Draft. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".

If the 2026 MLB Draft is canceled, postponed or not completed by July 26, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from MLB. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

常見問題

目前市場對「2026 MLB Draft: Player to be Drafted 6th Overall」的共識是什麼?

截至最新更新,Grady Emerson 以 4,950% 的獲勝機率領跑,其次是 Roch Cholowsky(4,950%),以及 Vahn Lackey(4,950%)。該市場總成交量已達 —,顯示出充足的流動性與高交易參與度。

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