2026 MLB All-Star Game: MVP

2026年7月15日
Active
機率趨勢
Shea Langeliers 49.5%
Ernie Clement 49.5%
Junior Caminero 49.5%
Bobby Witt Jr. 49.5%
Byron Buxton 49.5%

核心摘要

根據「2026 MLB All-Star Game: MVP」的最新預測市場資料,交易者已形成強烈共識。

目前,Ben Rice 以壓倒性的 7,300% 獲勝機率主導市場;Brandon Marsh 以 7,300% 位居第二,William Contreras 以 7,300% 排名第三。該市場的下注量已達 —,反映出市場的高度關注。

競爭梯隊拆解

為了更好地評估各潛在結果的位置,可依據隱含機率與合約定價將市場劃分為三個明顯的交易梯隊:

🥇 第一梯隊:絕對領跑者

  • Ben Rice (7,300%):Ben Rice 目前擁有最高機率,深受訂單簿青睞。看好該結果的交易者面對的「Buy Yes」合約價為 7,300¢,顯示出市場的高度確信。

🥈 第二梯隊:主要挑戰者

  • Brandon Marsh (7,300%):作為最可行的替代選項,Brandon Marsh 保持著 7,300% 的成真機率,其「Buy Yes」份額目前成交價為 7,300¢。
  • William Contreras (7,300%):以 7,300% 的機率位列第三,市場對 William Contreras 持謹慎懷疑態度,除非勢頭轉變,否則視其為外圍黑馬。

🥉 第三梯隊:長尾選項(合計約 0%)

在前三名之外,還有大量宏觀變數與冷門結果被持續追蹤。儘管單個機率偏低,但它們是投機交易者的重要對沖:

  • 替代選項:包括 Shea Langeliers (4,900%)、Ernie Clement (4,900%),以及 Junior Caminero (4,900%)。
  • 投機成交:儘管統計機率偏低,像 Bobby Witt Jr. 這類長尾合約仍吸引著可觀的關注。

完整訂單簿與定價面板

下表列出了該預測池中所有結果的合約價格、機率與市場深度的完整拆解:

排名預測結果獲勝機率成交量買入 Yes(成本)買入 No(成本)
1Ben Rice7300.0%7300¢-7200¢
2Brandon Marsh7300.0%7300¢-7200¢
3William Contreras7300.0%7300¢-7200¢
4Shea Langeliers4900.0%4900¢-4800¢
5Ernie Clement4900.0%4900¢-4800¢
6Junior Caminero4900.0%4900¢-4800¢
7Bobby Witt Jr.4900.0%4900¢-4800¢
8Byron Buxton4900.0%4900¢-4800¢
9Yordan Alvarez4900.0%4900¢-4800¢
10Adley Rutschman4900.0%4900¢-4800¢
11Nick Kurtz4900.0%4900¢-4800¢
12Travis Bazzana4900.0%4900¢-4800¢
13Miguel Vargas4900.0%4900¢-4800¢
14Kevin McGonigle4900.0%4900¢-4800¢
15Willson Contreras4900.0%4900¢-4800¢
16Randy Arozarena4900.0%4900¢-4800¢
17Cody Bellinger4900.0%4900¢-4800¢
18Riley Greene4900.0%4900¢-4800¢
19Yandy Diaz4900.0%4900¢-4800¢
20Dylan Cease4900.0%4900¢-4800¢
21Parker Messick4900.0%4900¢-4800¢
22Drew Rasmussen4900.0%4900¢-4800¢
23Joe Ryan4900.0%4900¢-4800¢
24Cam Schlittler4900.0%4900¢-4800¢
25Ranger Suarez4900.0%4900¢-4800¢
26Michael Wacha4900.0%4900¢-4800¢
27Bryan Baker4900.0%4900¢-4800¢
28Aroldis Chapman4900.0%4900¢-4800¢
29Jacob Latz4900.0%4900¢-4800¢
30Cade Smith4900.0%4900¢-4800¢
31Louie Varland4900.0%4900¢-4800¢
32Drake Baldwin4900.0%4900¢-4800¢
33Freddie Freeman4900.0%4900¢-4800¢
34Ozzie Albies4900.0%4900¢-4800¢
35Max Muncy4900.0%4900¢-4800¢
36CJ Abrams4900.0%4900¢-4800¢
37Juan Soto4900.0%4900¢-4800¢
38Andy Pages4900.0%4900¢-4800¢
39Shohei Ohtani4900.0%4900¢-4800¢
40Matt Olson4900.0%4900¢-4800¢
41Sal Stewart4900.0%4900¢-4800¢
42Bryce Harper4900.0%4900¢-4800¢
43Luis Arraez4900.0%4900¢-4800¢
44Otto Lopez4900.0%4900¢-4800¢
45Corbin Carroll4900.0%4900¢-4800¢
46Pete Crow-Armstrong4900.0%4900¢-4800¢
47Jordan Walker4900.0%4900¢-4800¢
48James Wood4900.0%4900¢-4800¢
49Kyle Schwarber4900.0%4900¢-4800¢
50Chase Burns4900.0%4900¢-4800¢
51Jhoan Duran4900.0%4900¢-4800¢
52Raisel Iglesias4900.0%4900¢-4800¢
53Mason Miller4900.0%4900¢-4800¢
54Eduardo Rodriguez4900.0%4900¢-4800¢
55Chris Sale4900.0%4900¢-4800¢
56Cristopher Sanchez4900.0%4900¢-4800¢
57Logan Webb4900.0%4900¢-4800¢
58Yoshinobu Yamamoto4900.0%4900¢-4800¢
59Riley O'Brien4900.0%4900¢-4800¢
60Braxton Ashcraft4900.0%4900¢-4800¢
61Jesus Luzardo4900.0%4900¢-4800¢
62Hunter Goodman4850.0%4850¢-4750¢
63Mike Trout2500.0%2500¢-2400¢
64Dillon Dingler2450.0%2450¢-2350¢

裁決規則

This market will resolve to the winner of the 2026 MLB All-Star Game MVP award.

If an unlisted player wins the 2026 MLB All-Star Game MVP award this market will resolve to "Other".

If two or more players are announced as winners of the 2026 MLB All-Star Game MVP award, this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.

If the 2026 MLB All-Star Game is cancelled, the MVP award winner is not announced by July 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or no player is crowned as the MVP, then this market will resolve to “Other”.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the MLB; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

常見問題

目前市場對「2026 MLB All-Star Game: MVP」的共識是什麼?

截至最新更新,Ben Rice 以 7,300% 的獲勝機率領跑,其次是 Brandon Marsh(7,300%),以及 William Contreras(7,300%)。該市場總成交量已達 —,顯示出充足的流動性與高交易參與度。

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