
2026 MLB All-Star Game: MVP
核心摘要
根據「2026 MLB All-Star Game: MVP」的最新預測市場資料,交易者已形成強烈共識。
目前,Ben Rice 以壓倒性的 7,300% 獲勝機率主導市場;Brandon Marsh 以 7,300% 位居第二,William Contreras 以 7,300% 排名第三。該市場的下注量已達 —,反映出市場的高度關注。
競爭梯隊拆解
為了更好地評估各潛在結果的位置,可依據隱含機率與合約定價將市場劃分為三個明顯的交易梯隊:
🥇 第一梯隊:絕對領跑者
- Ben Rice (7,300%):Ben Rice 目前擁有最高機率,深受訂單簿青睞。看好該結果的交易者面對的「Buy Yes」合約價為 7,300¢,顯示出市場的高度確信。
🥈 第二梯隊:主要挑戰者
- Brandon Marsh (7,300%):作為最可行的替代選項,Brandon Marsh 保持著 7,300% 的成真機率,其「Buy Yes」份額目前成交價為 7,300¢。
- William Contreras (7,300%):以 7,300% 的機率位列第三,市場對 William Contreras 持謹慎懷疑態度,除非勢頭轉變,否則視其為外圍黑馬。
🥉 第三梯隊:長尾選項(合計約 0%)
在前三名之外,還有大量宏觀變數與冷門結果被持續追蹤。儘管單個機率偏低,但它們是投機交易者的重要對沖:
- 替代選項:包括 Shea Langeliers (4,900%)、Ernie Clement (4,900%),以及 Junior Caminero (4,900%)。
- 投機成交:儘管統計機率偏低,像 Bobby Witt Jr. 這類長尾合約仍吸引著可觀的關注。
完整訂單簿與定價面板
下表列出了該預測池中所有結果的合約價格、機率與市場深度的完整拆解:
| 排名 | 預測結果 | 獲勝機率 | 成交量 | 買入 Yes(成本) | 買入 No(成本) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ben Rice | 7300.0% | — | 7300¢ | -7200¢ |
| 2 | Brandon Marsh | 7300.0% | — | 7300¢ | -7200¢ |
| 3 | William Contreras | 7300.0% | — | 7300¢ | -7200¢ |
| 4 | Shea Langeliers | 4900.0% | — | 4900¢ | -4800¢ |
| 5 | Ernie Clement | 4900.0% | — | 4900¢ | -4800¢ |
| 6 | Junior Caminero | 4900.0% | — | 4900¢ | -4800¢ |
| 7 | Bobby Witt Jr. | 4900.0% | — | 4900¢ | -4800¢ |
| 8 | Byron Buxton | 4900.0% | — | 4900¢ | -4800¢ |
| 9 | Yordan Alvarez | 4900.0% | — | 4900¢ | -4800¢ |
| 10 | Adley Rutschman | 4900.0% | — | 4900¢ | -4800¢ |
| 11 | Nick Kurtz | 4900.0% | — | 4900¢ | -4800¢ |
| 12 | Travis Bazzana | 4900.0% | — | 4900¢ | -4800¢ |
| 13 | Miguel Vargas | 4900.0% | — | 4900¢ | -4800¢ |
| 14 | Kevin McGonigle | 4900.0% | — | 4900¢ | -4800¢ |
| 15 | Willson Contreras | 4900.0% | — | 4900¢ | -4800¢ |
| 16 | Randy Arozarena | 4900.0% | — | 4900¢ | -4800¢ |
| 17 | Cody Bellinger | 4900.0% | — | 4900¢ | -4800¢ |
| 18 | Riley Greene | 4900.0% | — | 4900¢ | -4800¢ |
| 19 | Yandy Diaz | 4900.0% | — | 4900¢ | -4800¢ |
| 20 | Dylan Cease | 4900.0% | — | 4900¢ | -4800¢ |
| 21 | Parker Messick | 4900.0% | — | 4900¢ | -4800¢ |
| 22 | Drew Rasmussen | 4900.0% | — | 4900¢ | -4800¢ |
| 23 | Joe Ryan | 4900.0% | — | 4900¢ | -4800¢ |
| 24 | Cam Schlittler | 4900.0% | — | 4900¢ | -4800¢ |
| 25 | Ranger Suarez | 4900.0% | — | 4900¢ | -4800¢ |
| 26 | Michael Wacha | 4900.0% | — | 4900¢ | -4800¢ |
| 27 | Bryan Baker | 4900.0% | — | 4900¢ | -4800¢ |
| 28 | Aroldis Chapman | 4900.0% | — | 4900¢ | -4800¢ |
| 29 | Jacob Latz | 4900.0% | — | 4900¢ | -4800¢ |
| 30 | Cade Smith | 4900.0% | — | 4900¢ | -4800¢ |
| 31 | Louie Varland | 4900.0% | — | 4900¢ | -4800¢ |
| 32 | Drake Baldwin | 4900.0% | — | 4900¢ | -4800¢ |
| 33 | Freddie Freeman | 4900.0% | — | 4900¢ | -4800¢ |
| 34 | Ozzie Albies | 4900.0% | — | 4900¢ | -4800¢ |
| 35 | Max Muncy | 4900.0% | — | 4900¢ | -4800¢ |
| 36 | CJ Abrams | 4900.0% | — | 4900¢ | -4800¢ |
| 37 | Juan Soto | 4900.0% | — | 4900¢ | -4800¢ |
| 38 | Andy Pages | 4900.0% | — | 4900¢ | -4800¢ |
| 39 | Shohei Ohtani | 4900.0% | — | 4900¢ | -4800¢ |
| 40 | Matt Olson | 4900.0% | — | 4900¢ | -4800¢ |
| 41 | Sal Stewart | 4900.0% | — | 4900¢ | -4800¢ |
| 42 | Bryce Harper | 4900.0% | — | 4900¢ | -4800¢ |
| 43 | Luis Arraez | 4900.0% | — | 4900¢ | -4800¢ |
| 44 | Otto Lopez | 4900.0% | — | 4900¢ | -4800¢ |
| 45 | Corbin Carroll | 4900.0% | — | 4900¢ | -4800¢ |
| 46 | Pete Crow-Armstrong | 4900.0% | — | 4900¢ | -4800¢ |
| 47 | Jordan Walker | 4900.0% | — | 4900¢ | -4800¢ |
| 48 | James Wood | 4900.0% | — | 4900¢ | -4800¢ |
| 49 | Kyle Schwarber | 4900.0% | — | 4900¢ | -4800¢ |
| 50 | Chase Burns | 4900.0% | — | 4900¢ | -4800¢ |
| 51 | Jhoan Duran | 4900.0% | — | 4900¢ | -4800¢ |
| 52 | Raisel Iglesias | 4900.0% | — | 4900¢ | -4800¢ |
| 53 | Mason Miller | 4900.0% | — | 4900¢ | -4800¢ |
| 54 | Eduardo Rodriguez | 4900.0% | — | 4900¢ | -4800¢ |
| 55 | Chris Sale | 4900.0% | — | 4900¢ | -4800¢ |
| 56 | Cristopher Sanchez | 4900.0% | — | 4900¢ | -4800¢ |
| 57 | Logan Webb | 4900.0% | — | 4900¢ | -4800¢ |
| 58 | Yoshinobu Yamamoto | 4900.0% | — | 4900¢ | -4800¢ |
| 59 | Riley O'Brien | 4900.0% | — | 4900¢ | -4800¢ |
| 60 | Braxton Ashcraft | 4900.0% | — | 4900¢ | -4800¢ |
| 61 | Jesus Luzardo | 4900.0% | — | 4900¢ | -4800¢ |
| 62 | Hunter Goodman | 4850.0% | — | 4850¢ | -4750¢ |
| 63 | Mike Trout | 2500.0% | — | 2500¢ | -2400¢ |
| 64 | Dillon Dingler | 2450.0% | — | 2450¢ | -2350¢ |
裁決規則
This market will resolve to the winner of the 2026 MLB All-Star Game MVP award.
If an unlisted player wins the 2026 MLB All-Star Game MVP award this market will resolve to "Other".
If two or more players are announced as winners of the 2026 MLB All-Star Game MVP award, this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.
If the 2026 MLB All-Star Game is cancelled, the MVP award winner is not announced by July 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or no player is crowned as the MVP, then this market will resolve to “Other”.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the MLB; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
常見問題
目前市場對「2026 MLB All-Star Game: MVP」的共識是什麼?
截至最新更新,Ben Rice 以 7,300% 的獲勝機率領跑,其次是 Brandon Marsh(7,300%),以及 William Contreras(7,300%)。該市場總成交量已達 —,顯示出充足的流動性與高交易參與度。
