
PortlandFire vs. Atlanta Dream
核心摘要
根据「PortlandFire vs. Atlanta Dream」的最新预测市场数据,交易者已形成强烈共识。
目前,PortlandFire vs. Atlanta Dream 以压倒性的 9,995% 获胜概率主导市场;Allisha Gray: Points O/U 18.5 以 9,050% 位居第二,Megan Gustafson: Points O/U 12.5 以 9,050% 排名第三。该市场的下注量已达 $320.8K,反映出市场的高度关注。
竞争梯队拆解
为了更好地评估各潜在结果的位置,可依据隐含概率与合约定价将市场划分为三个明显的交易梯队:
🥇 第一梯队:绝对领跑者
- PortlandFire vs. Atlanta Dream (9,995%):PortlandFire vs. Atlanta Dream 目前拥有最高概率,深受订单簿青睐。看好该结果的交易者面对的「Buy Yes」合约价为 9,995¢,显示出市场的高度确信。仅该合约就已产生 $149.5K 的成交量。
🥈 第二梯队:主要挑战者
- Allisha Gray: Points O/U 18.5 (9,050%):作为最可行的替代选项,Allisha Gray: Points O/U 18.5 保持着 9,050% 的成真概率,其「Buy Yes」份额目前成交价为 9,050¢。
- Megan Gustafson: Points O/U 12.5 (9,050%):以 9,050% 的概率位列第三,市场对 Megan Gustafson: Points O/U 12.5 持谨慎怀疑态度,除非势头转变,否则视其为外围黑马。
🥉 第三梯队:长尾选项(合计约 0%)
在前三名之外,还有大量宏观变量与冷门结果被持续追踪。尽管单个概率偏低,但它们是投机交易者的重要对冲:
- 替代选项:包括 Carla Leite: Assists O/U 5.5 (9,050%)、Rhyne Howard: Rebounds O/U 3.5 (5,000%),以及 Allisha Gray: Rebounds O/U 3.5 (5,000%)。
- 投机成交:尽管统计概率偏低,像 Bridget Carleton: Rebounds O/U 3.5 这类长尾合约仍吸引着可观的关注。
完整订单簿与定价面板
下表列出了该预测池中所有结果的合约价格、概率与市场深度的完整拆解:
| 排名 | 预测结果 | 获胜概率 | 成交量 | 买入 Yes(成本) | 买入 No(成本) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PortlandFire vs. Atlanta Dream | 9995.0% | $149.5K | 9995¢ | -9895¢ |
| 2 | Allisha Gray: Points O/U 18.5 | 9050.0% | $5 | 9050¢ | -8950¢ |
| 3 | Megan Gustafson: Points O/U 12.5 | 9050.0% | $5 | 9050¢ | -8950¢ |
| 4 | Carla Leite: Assists O/U 5.5 | 9050.0% | $5 | 9050¢ | -8950¢ |
| 5 | Rhyne Howard: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 6 | Allisha Gray: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 7 | Bridget Carleton: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 8 | Megan Gustafson: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 9 | Megan Gustafson: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 10 | Carla Leite: Rebounds O/U 2.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 11 | Rhyne Howard: Points O/U 18.5 | 950.0% | $5 | 950¢ | -850¢ |
| 12 | Bridget Carleton: Points O/U 13.5 | 950.0% | $5 | 950¢ | -850¢ |
| 13 | Carla Leite: Points O/U 14.5 | 950.0% | $5 | 950¢ | -850¢ |
| 14 | Angel Reese: Points O/U 15.5 | 45.0% | $154 | 45¢ | 55¢ |
| 15 | Spread -11.5 | 5.0% | $14.8K | 5¢ | 95¢ |
| 16 | Angel Reese: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 5.0% | $3.2K | 5¢ | 95¢ |
| 17 | Spread -12.5 | 5.0% | $27.3K | 5¢ | 95¢ |
| 18 | Spread -13.5 | 5.0% | $64.1K | 5¢ | 95¢ |
裁决规则
In the upcoming WNBA game, scheduled for July 11 at 4:00PM ET:
If the PortlandFire win, the market will resolve to "PortlandFire".
If the Atlanta Dream win, the market will resolve to "Atlanta Dream".
If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed.
If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.
The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods.
交易动态
以下是该事件的交易动态。
Jul 11, 2026
- 08:50 PMRERentMoney84629233$1.00
Bought 4.347825 Atlanta Dream for Spread: Atlanta Dream (-13.5) at 0.23
- 08:50 PMRERentMoney84629233$1.00
Bought 4.347825 Atlanta Dream for Spread: Atlanta Dream (-13.5) at 0.23
- 08:49 PMRERetireMePlz$3.63
Bought 4.270586 PortlandFire for Spread: Atlanta Dream (-13.5) at 0.85
- 08:49 PMSWswisstony$0.80
Bought 5 Atlanta Dream for Spread: Atlanta Dream (-13.5) at 0.16
- 08:49 PMSWswisstony$0.85
Bought 5 Atlanta Dream for Spread: Atlanta Dream (-13.5) at 0.17
- 08:49 PM——$1.22
Bought 1.435293 PortlandFire for Spread: Atlanta Dream (-13.5) at 0.85
- 08:49 PMEZezp-luk-4$4.25
Bought 5 PortlandFire for Spread: Atlanta Dream (-13.5) at 0.85
- 08:49 PMZ2Z2YESMANMANz2$1.10
Bought 1.29 PortlandFire for Spread: Atlanta Dream (-13.5) at 0.85
- 08:49 PM0X0x19e5e4bd692fEa0b868Aa1b57AB4bd5a86A0dd71-1783087465208$1.36
Bought 1.6 PortlandFire for Spread: Atlanta Dream (-13.5) at 0.85
- 08:49 PM0X0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846$40.92
Bought 49.3 PortlandFire for Spread: Atlanta Dream (-13.5) at 0.83
- 08:47 PMRARafinius$6.49
Sold 10.14 PortlandFire for Spread: Atlanta Dream (-12.5) at 0.64
- 08:46 PMTHTh0rsday$1.86
Bought 6.413792 Under for PortlandFire vs. Atlanta Dream: O/U 173.5 at 0.29
正在押注该事件的鲸鱼钱包
常见问题
当前市场对「PortlandFire vs. Atlanta Dream」的共识是什么?
截至最新更新,PortlandFire vs. Atlanta Dream 以 9,995% 的获胜概率领跑,其次是 Allisha Gray: Points O/U 18.5(9,050%),以及 Megan Gustafson: Points O/U 12.5(9,050%)。该市场总成交量已达 $320.8K,显示出充足的流动性与高交易参与度。
