Wimbledon 2026: To Reach Fourth Round (Men’s Singles)
核心摘要
根据「Wimbledon 2026: To Reach Fourth Round (Men’s Singles)」的最新预测市场数据，交易者已形成强烈共识。
目前，Jannik Sinner 以压倒性的 9,400% 获胜概率主导市场；Daniil Medvedev 以 8,500% 位居第二，Felix Auger-Aliassime 以 7,750% 排名第三。该市场的下注量已达 $84.6K，反映出市场的高度关注。
竞争梯队拆解
为了更好地评估各潜在结果的位置，可依据隐含概率与合约定价将市场划分为三个明显的交易梯队：
🥇 第一梯队：绝对领跑者
- Jannik Sinner (9,400%)：Jannik Sinner 目前拥有最高概率，深受订单簿青睐。看好该结果的交易者面对的「Buy Yes」合约价为 9,400¢，显示出市场的高度确信。仅该合约就已产生 $270 的成交量。
🥈 第二梯队：主要挑战者
- Daniil Medvedev (8,500%)：作为最可行的替代选项，Daniil Medvedev 保持着 8,500% 的成真概率，其「Buy Yes」份额目前成交价为 8,500¢。
- Felix Auger-Aliassime (7,750%)：以 7,750% 的概率位列第三，市场对 Felix Auger-Aliassime 持谨慎怀疑态度，除非势头转变，否则视其为外围黑马。
🥉 第三梯队：长尾选项（合计约 0%）
在前三名之外，还有大量宏观变量与冷门结果被持续追踪。尽管单个概率偏低，但它们是投机交易者的重要对冲：
- 替代选项：包括 Alexander Zverev (7,450%)、Novak Djokovic (7,350%)，以及 Ben Shelton (7,300%)。
- 投机成交：尽管统计概率偏低，像 Taylor Fritz 这类长尾合约仍吸引着可观的关注。
完整订单簿与定价面板
下表列出了该预测池中所有结果的合约价格、概率与市场深度的完整拆解：
| 排名 | 预测结果 | 获胜概率 | 成交量 | 买入 Yes（成本） | 买入 No（成本） |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jannik Sinner | 9400.0% | $270 | 9400¢ | -9300¢ |
| 2 | Daniil Medvedev | 8500.0% | — | 8500¢ | -8400¢ |
| 3 | Felix Auger-Aliassime | 7750.0% | $48 | 7750¢ | -7650¢ |
| 4 | Alexander Zverev | 7450.0% | — | 7450¢ | -7350¢ |
| 5 | Novak Djokovic | 7350.0% | — | 7350¢ | -7250¢ |
| 6 | Ben Shelton | 7300.0% | $308 | 7300¢ | -7200¢ |
| 7 | Taylor Fritz | 6050.0% | $207 | 6050¢ | -5950¢ |
| 8 | Alex De Minaur | 5550.0% | — | 5550¢ | -5450¢ |
| 9 | Ignacio Buse | 5300.0% | $395 | 5300¢ | -5200¢ |
| 10 | Tommy Paul | 5150.0% | $65 | 5150¢ | -5050¢ |
| 11 | Alex Michelsen | 5100.0% | — | 5100¢ | -5000¢ |
| 12 | Rafael Jodar | 5050.0% | $175 | 5050¢ | -4950¢ |
| 13 | Mariano Navone | 5050.0% | — | 5050¢ | -4950¢ |
| 14 | Jiri Lehecka | 5050.0% | — | 5050¢ | -4950¢ |
| 15 | Joao Fonseca | 5000.0% | $160 | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 16 | Tallon Griekspoor | 4900.0% | — | 4900¢ | -4800¢ |
| 17 | Soonwoo Kwon | 4850.0% | — | 4850¢ | -4750¢ |
| 18 | Kamil Majchrzak | 4800.0% | — | 4800¢ | -4700¢ |
| 19 | Jakub Mensik | 4800.0% | $401 | 4800¢ | -4700¢ |
| 20 | Hubert Hurkacz | 4450.0% | $323 | 4450¢ | -4350¢ |
| 21 | Ethan Quinn | 3850.0% | — | 3850¢ | -3750¢ |
| 22 | Frances Tiafoe | 3800.0% | — | 3800¢ | -3700¢ |
| 23 | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina | 3550.0% | — | 3550¢ | -3450¢ |
| 24 | Roman Safiullin | 3450.0% | — | 3450¢ | -3350¢ |
| 25 | Learner Tien | 3350.0% | — | 3350¢ | -3250¢ |
| 26 | Alexander Bublik | 3250.0% | — | 3250¢ | -3150¢ |
| 27 | Karen Khachanov | 3200.0% | — | 3200¢ | -3100¢ |
| 28 | Flavio Cobolli | 2900.0% | — | 2900¢ | -2800¢ |
| 29 | Arthur Fils | 2600.0% | — | 2600¢ | -2500¢ |
| 30 | Matteo Berrettini | 2400.0% | — | 2400¢ | -2300¢ |
| 31 | Ugo Humbert | 2400.0% | — | 2400¢ | -2300¢ |
| 32 | Zizou Bergs | 2400.0% | $40 | 2400¢ | -2300¢ |
| 33 | Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard | 2300.0% | — | 2300¢ | -2200¢ |
| 34 | Matteo Arnaldi | 2100.0% | — | 2100¢ | -2000¢ |
| 35 | Pablo Carreno Busta | 2050.0% | — | 2050¢ | -1950¢ |
| 36 | Grigor Dimitrov | 2000.0% | — | 2000¢ | -1900¢ |
| 37 | Stefanos Tsitsipas | 1900.0% | — | 1900¢ | -1800¢ |
| 38 | Alejandro Tabilo | 1900.0% | — | 1900¢ | -1800¢ |
| 39 | Thanasi Kokkinakis | 1900.0% | — | 1900¢ | -1800¢ |
| 40 | Fabian Marozsan | 1850.0% | — | 1850¢ | -1750¢ |
| 41 | Botic Van de Zandschulp | 1800.0% | — | 1800¢ | -1700¢ |
| 42 | Marton Fucsovics | 1650.0% | — | 1650¢ | -1550¢ |
| 43 | Shintaro Mochizuki | 1600.0% | — | 1600¢ | -1500¢ |
| 44 | Adrian Mannarino | 1550.0% | — | 1550¢ | -1450¢ |
| 45 | Michael Zheng | 1500.0% | — | 1500¢ | -1400¢ |
| 46 | Gabriel Diallo | 1500.0% | — | 1500¢ | -1400¢ |
| 47 | Jacob Fearnley | 1400.0% | — | 1400¢ | -1300¢ |
| 48 | Benjamin Bonzi | 1350.0% | — | 1350¢ | -1250¢ |
| 49 | Lorenzo Sonego | 1300.0% | — | 1300¢ | -1200¢ |
| 50 | Brandon Nakashima | 1250.0% | — | 1250¢ | -1150¢ |
| 51 | Jan-Lennard Struff | 1250.0% | — | 1250¢ | -1150¢ |
| 52 | Jesper De Jong | 1250.0% | — | 1250¢ | -1150¢ |
| 53 | Arthur Rinderknech | 1250.0% | — | 1250¢ | -1150¢ |
| 54 | Nuno Borges | 1200.0% | — | 1200¢ | -1100¢ |
| 55 | Sebastian Ofner | 1200.0% | — | 1200¢ | -1100¢ |
| 56 | Francisco Cerundolo | 1200.0% | $25 | 1200¢ | -1100¢ |
| 57 | Rinky Hijikata | 1150.0% | $40 | 1150¢ | -1050¢ |
| 58 | Jan Choinski | 1150.0% | — | 1150¢ | -1050¢ |
| 59 | Alexei Popyrin | 1150.0% | — | 1150¢ | -1050¢ |
| 60 | Jack Pinnington Jones | 1100.0% | — | 1100¢ | -1000¢ |
| 61 | Corentin Moutet | 1100.0% | — | 1100¢ | -1000¢ |
| 62 | Tomas Martin Etcheverry | 1050.0% | — | 1050¢ | -950¢ |
| 63 | Dino Prizmic | 900.0% | — | 900¢ | -800¢ |
| 64 | Stan Wawrinka | 900.0% | — | 900¢ | -800¢ |
| 65 | Otto Virtanen | 900.0% | — | 900¢ | -800¢ |
| 66 | Terence Atmane | 900.0% | — | 900¢ | -800¢ |
| 67 | Jenson Brooksby | 850.0% | — | 850¢ | -750¢ |
| 68 | Quentin Halys | 850.0% | — | 850¢ | -750¢ |
| 69 | Marcos Giron | 850.0% | — | 850¢ | -750¢ |
| 70 | Toby Samuel | 800.0% | — | 800¢ | -700¢ |
| 71 | Zachary Svajda | 750.0% | — | 750¢ | -650¢ |
| 72 | Jaime Faria | 750.0% | — | 750¢ | -650¢ |
| 73 | Mackenzie McDonald | 750.0% | — | 750¢ | -650¢ |
| 74 | Daniel Altmaier | 750.0% | — | 750¢ | -650¢ |
| 75 | Nicolas Mejia | 700.0% | — | 700¢ | -600¢ |
| 76 | Billy Harris | 700.0% | — | 700¢ | -600¢ |
| 77 | Raphael Collignon | 700.0% | — | 700¢ | -600¢ |
| 78 | Arthur Fery | 700.0% | — | 700¢ | -600¢ |
| 79 | Daniel Merida | 650.0% | — | 650¢ | -550¢ |
| 80 | Martin Damm | 650.0% | — | 650¢ | -550¢ |
| 81 | Roman Andres Burruchaga | 650.0% | — | 650¢ | -550¢ |
| 82 | Titouan Droguet | 650.0% | — | 650¢ | -550¢ |
| 83 | Pablo Llamas Ruiz | 650.0% | — | 650¢ | -550¢ |
| 84 | Yannick Hanfmann | 650.0% | — | 650¢ | -550¢ |
| 85 | Dane Sweeny | 650.0% | — | 650¢ | -550¢ |
| 86 | Alexander Blockx | 650.0% | — | 650¢ | -550¢ |
| 87 | Damir Dzumhur | 600.0% | — | 600¢ | -500¢ |
| 88 | Kyrian Jacquet | 600.0% | — | 600¢ | -500¢ |
| 89 | Vilius Gaubas | 600.0% | — | 600¢ | -500¢ |
| 90 | Alex Molcan | 600.0% | — | 600¢ | -500¢ |
| 91 | Jaume Munar | 600.0% | — | 600¢ | -500¢ |
| 92 | James Duckworth | 550.0% | — | 550¢ | -450¢ |
| 93 | Sho Shimabukuro | 550.0% | — | 550¢ | -450¢ |
| 94 | Valentin Royer | 550.0% | — | 550¢ | -450¢ |
| 95 | Harry Wendelken | 550.0% | — | 550¢ | -450¢ |
| 96 | Patrick Kypson | 500.0% | — | 500¢ | -400¢ |
| 97 | Vit Kopriva | 400.0% | — | 400¢ | -300¢ |
裁决规则
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed player clinches a spot in the Fourth Round (Round of 16) in the Championships at Wimbledon per Wimbledon rules. Otherwise, the associated market will resolve to "No".
If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed player to clinch a spot in the Fourth Round (Round of 16) in the Championships at Wimbledon (e.g. the player is eliminated), the associated market will resolve to "No".
If the 2026 Championships at Wimbledon are cancelled, postponed after July 26, 11:59 PM ET, or the players that qualified for the Fourth Round (Round of 16) have not been officially confirmed by Wimbledon within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the AELTC and ATP; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易动态
以下是该事件的交易动态。
Jun 30, 2026
- 08:30 AMCRcrescendolls$13.20
Bought 20 No for Will Roman Safiullin advance to the Fourth Round (Round of 16) in Gentlemen's Singles at Wimbledon 2026? at 0.66
- 08:27 AMCRcrescendolls$11.20
Bought 20 Yes for Will Alex De Minaur advance to the Fourth Round (Round of 16) in Gentlemen's Singles at Wimbledon 2026? at 0.56
- 08:27 AMCRcrescendolls$12.20
Bought 20 Yes for Will Taylor Fritz advance to the Fourth Round (Round of 16) in Gentlemen's Singles at Wimbledon 2026? at 0.61
- 08:17 AMVIViscaElBarca$0.60
Sold 5 Yes for Will Francisco Cerundolo advance to the Fourth Round (Round of 16) in Gentlemen's Singles at Wimbledon 2026? at 0.12
- 08:17 AMM3M3RL1N$0.60
Sold 5 Yes for Will Francisco Cerundolo advance to the Fourth Round (Round of 16) in Gentlemen's Singles at Wimbledon 2026? at 0.12
- 07:37 AMIMImSweating$20.40
Sold 40 No for Will Jakub Mensik advance to the Fourth Round (Round of 16) in Gentlemen's Singles at Wimbledon 2026? at 0.51
- 06:34 AM0X0x17337525541B55342D739089568F72f48fEDDC80-1759050031927$10.40
Bought 115.555554 No for Will Jannik Sinner advance to the Fourth Round (Round of 16) in Gentlemen's Singles at Wimbledon 2026? at 0.09
- 02:16 AMPOpoteshniylol$14.70
Sold 30 No for Will Jakub Mensik advance to the Fourth Round (Round of 16) in Gentlemen's Singles at Wimbledon 2026? at 0.49
- 02:06 AMGEgetmetoskii$22.80
Sold 40 No for Will Jakub Mensik advance to the Fourth Round (Round of 16) in Gentlemen's Singles at Wimbledon 2026? at 0.57
- 02:04 AMGEgetmetoskii$9.45
Sold 21.98 Yes for Will Hubert Hurkacz advance to the Fourth Round (Round of 16) in Gentlemen's Singles at Wimbledon 2026? at 0.43
- 02:01 AMPOpoteshniylol$11.60
Sold 20 No for Will Jakub Mensik advance to the Fourth Round (Round of 16) in Gentlemen's Singles at Wimbledon 2026? at 0.58
- 01:47 AMARArmageddonRewardsBilly$17.05
Sold 39.65 Yes for Will Hubert Hurkacz advance to the Fourth Round (Round of 16) in Gentlemen's Singles at Wimbledon 2026? at 0.43
常见问题
当前市场对「Wimbledon 2026: To Reach Fourth Round (Men’s Singles)」的共识是什么？
截至最新更新，Jannik Sinner 以 9,400% 的获胜概率领跑，其次是 Daniil Medvedev（8,500%），以及 Felix Auger-Aliassime（7,750%）。该市场总成交量已达 $84.6K，显示出充足的流动性与高交易参与度。