Will Trump publicly insult someone on...?

根据「Will Trump publicly insult someone on...?」的最新预测市场数据，交易者已形成强烈共识。

目前，July 3 以压倒性的 9,910% 获胜概率主导市场；July 1 以 9,905% 位居第二，July 6 以 9,250% 排名第三。该市场的下注量已达 $67.7K，反映出市场的高度关注。

为了更好地评估各潜在结果的位置，可依据隐含概率与合约定价将市场划分为三个明显的交易梯队：

🥇 第一梯队：绝对领跑者

• July 3 (9,910%)：July 3 目前拥有最高概率，深受订单簿青睐。看好该结果的交易者面对的「Buy Yes」合约价为 9,910¢，显示出市场的高度确信。仅该合约就已产生 $13.7K 的成交量。

🥈 第二梯队：主要挑战者

• July 1 (9,905%)：作为最可行的替代选项，July 1 保持着 9,905% 的成真概率，其「Buy Yes」份额目前成交价为 9,905¢。
• July 6 (9,250%)：以 9,250% 的概率位列第三，市场对 July 6 持谨慎怀疑态度，除非势头转变，否则视其为外围黑马。

🥉 第三梯队：长尾选项（合计约 0%）

在前三名之外，还有大量宏观变量与冷门结果被持续追踪。尽管单个概率偏低，但它们是投机交易者的重要对冲：

• 替代选项：包括 July 5 (9,200%)、July 8 (9,200%)，以及 July 9 (9,200%)。
• 投机成交：尽管统计概率偏低，像 July 10 这类长尾合约仍吸引着可观的关注。

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults, mocks, or attacks any non-fictional individual personally or professionally in a clearly negative manner on the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This includes calling the individual weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure, using an insulting nickname, using other derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a derogatory personal way (e.g., “He/She isn’t smart”). Negative forms used in reference to the individual's professional actions, policies, or decisions (e.g., “He/She isn’t being smart about this policy”) will not count. Policy disagreements stated without disparaging language will not count.

A direct reference will qualify even if the individual is not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that they are the subject.

Any written, verbal, or recorded public statement by Trump qualifies.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.