Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30?

根据「Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30?」的最新预测市场数据，交易者已形成强烈共识。

目前，40+ 以压倒性的 92.5% 获胜概率主导市场；60+ 以 27% 位居第二，80+ 以 2.3% 排名第三。该市场的下注量已达 $3.5M，反映出市场的高度关注。

为了更好地评估各潜在结果的位置，可依据隐含概率与合约定价将市场划分为三个明显的交易梯队：

🥇 第一梯队：绝对领跑者

• 40+ (92.5%)：40+ 目前拥有最高概率，深受订单簿青睐。看好该结果的交易者面对的「Buy Yes」合约价为 93¢，显示出市场的高度确信。仅该合约就已产生 $1.2M 的成交量。

🥈 第二梯队：主要挑战者

• 60+ (27%)：作为最可行的替代选项，60+ 保持着 27% 的成真概率，其「Buy Yes」份额目前成交价为 27¢。
• 80+ (2.3%)：以 2.3% 的概率位列第三，市场对 80+ 持谨慎怀疑态度，除非势头转变，否则视其为外围黑马。

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any finalized daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz reported by IMF Portwatch is equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and June 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.

Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).

This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying figure has been finalized or once all relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the final date of the specified timeframe has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is first released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.

In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.

Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.

The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.

人群共识与投机成交塑造了更宏观的预测市场，而我们的量化算法提供了数据驱动的反向视角。通过分析基本面信号、底层趋势与历史分布，我们的 AI 估值模型为每个结果独立测算出一个「公允价值」概率。

将该公允价值与当前交易价值对比，可揭示出重大背离——即期望值（EV）差。正 EV 差代表统计上被低估的结果，而负 EV 差则提示市场可能存在反应过度。

顶级 AI Alpha 与错误定价套利机会

根据最新一轮数据模型测算，以下几个关键合约存在显著偏离：

• 最被高估的结果：40+ 当前交易价为 92.5%，但我们的 AI 测算其公允价值仅为 86%，形成 -6.6% 的较大负 EV 差，表明人群可能过度炒作该结果、把溢价推得过高。
• 最佳价值标的（最高 EV）：我们的模型将 60+ 识别为盘面上最具价值的机会。市场仅给予其 27% 的交易概率，而我们 AI 的公允价值评估为 39.2%——形成可观的 +12.2% EV 差。