Will Newmont (NEM) Q2 total attributable gold production be above __?

根据「Will Newmont (NEM) Q2 total attributable gold production be above __?」的最新预测市场数据，交易者已形成强烈共识。

目前，1,200 koz 以压倒性的 5,000% 获胜概率主导市场；1,250 koz 以 5,000% 位居第二，1,300 koz 以 5,000% 排名第三。该市场的下注量已达 —，反映出市场的高度关注。

为了更好地评估各潜在结果的位置，可依据隐含概率与合约定价将市场划分为三个明显的交易梯队：

🥇 第一梯队：绝对领跑者

• 1,200 koz (5,000%)：1,200 koz 目前拥有最高概率，深受订单簿青睐。看好该结果的交易者面对的「Buy Yes」合约价为 5,000¢，显示出市场的高度确信。

🥈 第二梯队：主要挑战者

• 1,250 koz (5,000%)：作为最可行的替代选项，1,250 koz 保持着 5,000% 的成真概率，其「Buy Yes」份额目前成交价为 5,000¢。
• 1,300 koz (5,000%)：以 5,000% 的概率位列第三，市场对 1,300 koz 持谨慎怀疑态度，除非势头转变，否则视其为外围黑马。

🥉 第三梯队：长尾选项（合计约 0%）

在前三名之外，还有大量宏观变量与冷门结果被持续追踪。尽管单个概率偏低，但它们是投机交易者的重要对冲：

• 替代选项：包括 1,350 koz (5,000%)，以及 1,400 koz (500%)。
• 投机成交：尽管统计概率偏低，像 1,350 koz 这类长尾合约仍吸引着可观的关注。

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Newmont's total attributable gold production for the upcoming second fiscal quarter, as reported in its official company earnings materials, is above the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The specified metric will be considered as reported in the company's official earnings materials. Subsequent revisions will not be considered.

If the specified company's official earnings materials for the specified quarter are released, and the specified metric is not included, this market will resolve to "No".

If the specified company does not release quarterly earnings materials for the specified quarter by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

If the specified metric is reported as a range rather than a specific number, the midpoint of the range will be used for resolution of this market.

The resolution source for this market is the specified company's official company earnings materials, including press releases, investor presentations, and regulatory filings. If the specified metric is not reported in these materials, recordings or transcripts of the company's earnings webcast may also be used.

Note: This market will resolve based on the most numerically precise version of the specified metric reported in the company's official earnings materials. Only the specified metric will be considered; alternate versions that differ in definition or scope from the specified metric will not be considered.