Will Clarence Thomas announce his retirement by...?

根据「Will Clarence Thomas announce his retirement by...?」的最新预测市场数据，交易者已形成强烈共识。

目前，December 31, 2026 以压倒性的 5,350% 获胜概率主导市场；September 30, 2026 以 4,500% 位居第二，June 30, 2027 以 4,500% 排名第三。该市场的下注量已达 —，反映出市场的高度关注。

为了更好地评估各潜在结果的位置，可依据隐含概率与合约定价将市场划分为三个明显的交易梯队：

🥇 第一梯队：绝对领跑者

• December 31, 2026 (5,350%)：December 31, 2026 目前拥有最高概率，深受订单簿青睐。看好该结果的交易者面对的「Buy Yes」合约价为 5,350¢，显示出市场的高度确信。

🥈 第二梯队：主要挑战者

• September 30, 2026 (4,500%)：作为最可行的替代选项，September 30, 2026 保持着 4,500% 的成真概率，其「Buy Yes」份额目前成交价为 4,500¢。
• June 30, 2027 (4,500%)：以 4,500% 的概率位列第三，市场对 June 30, 2027 持谨慎怀疑态度，除非势头转变，否则视其为外围黑马。

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Clarence Thomas announces that he will retire from his position as a Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The announced timing of his retirement may be immediate, at the end of the current Supreme Court term, or at any point in the future.

Any qualifying announcement from Thomas will count for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the announced retirement goes into effect.

The resolution source for this market will be official announcements from Thomas or one of his official representatives.