Maine Democratic Senate nominee on July 27?

根据「Maine Democratic Senate nominee on July 27?」的最新预测市场数据，交易者已形成强烈共识。

目前，Troy Jackson 以压倒性的 7,600% 获胜概率主导市场；Dan Kleban 以 895% 位居第二，Graham Platner 以 750% 排名第三。该市场的下注量已达 $5.3K，反映出市场的高度关注。

为了更好地评估各潜在结果的位置，可依据隐含概率与合约定价将市场划分为三个明显的交易梯队：

🥇 第一梯队：绝对领跑者

• Troy Jackson (7,600%)：Troy Jackson 目前拥有最高概率，深受订单簿青睐。看好该结果的交易者面对的「Buy Yes」合约价为 7,600¢，显示出市场的高度确信。仅该合约就已产生 $3.9K 的成交量。

🥈 第二梯队：主要挑战者

• Dan Kleban (895%)：作为最可行的替代选项，Dan Kleban 保持着 895% 的成真概率，其「Buy Yes」份额目前成交价为 895¢。
• Graham Platner (750%)：以 750% 的概率位列第三，市场对 Graham Platner 持谨慎怀疑态度，除非势头转变，否则视其为外围黑马。

🥉 第三梯队：长尾选项（合计约 0%）

在前三名之外，还有大量宏观变量与冷门结果被持续追踪。尽管单个概率偏低，但它们是投机交易者的重要对冲：

• 替代选项：包括 Jordan Wood (635%)、Janet Mills (460%)，以及 Jared Golden (450%)。
• 投机成交：尽管统计概率偏低，像 Aaron Frey 这类长尾合约仍吸引着可观的关注。

If a party nominee in Maine voluntarily withdraws from their election by July 13 at 5:00PM ET, their political party may replace them by July 27 at 5:00PM ET.

This market will resolve according to the individual who is the Maine Democratic Party's apparent nominee for the 2026 U.S. Senate election on July 27 at 11:59PM ET.

This market will consider Graham Platner to be the apparent nominee unless he withdraws from the election, voluntarily or otherwise. If Graham Platner has withdrawn from the election, an official announcement by the Maine Democratic Party that an individual has been chosen as the replacement nominee will qualify such individual as the apparent nominee, regardless of any subsequent legal steps that have yet to be confirmed.

In the event that there is not an apparent nominee in this election, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be official announcements of the results from the Maine Democratic Party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.