Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31?

根据「Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31?」的最新预测市场数据，交易者已形成强烈共识。

目前，United States 以压倒性的 4,350% 获胜概率主导市场；France 以 1,450% 位居第二，United Kingdom 以 1,100% 排名第三。该市场的下注量已达 $2K，反映出市场的高度关注。

为了更好地评估各潜在结果的位置，可依据隐含概率与合约定价将市场划分为三个明显的交易梯队：

🥇 第一梯队：绝对领跑者

• United States (4,350%)：United States 目前拥有最高概率，深受订单簿青睐。看好该结果的交易者面对的「Buy Yes」合约价为 4,350¢，显示出市场的高度确信。仅该合约就已产生 $1 的成交量。

🥈 第二梯队：主要挑战者

• France (1,450%)：作为最可行的替代选项，France 保持着 1,450% 的成真概率，其「Buy Yes」份额目前成交价为 1,450¢。
• United Kingdom (1,100%)：以 1,100% 的概率位列第三，市场对 United Kingdom 持谨慎怀疑态度，除非势头转变，否则视其为外围黑马。

🥉 第三梯队：长尾选项（合计约 0%）

在前三名之外，还有大量宏观变量与冷门结果被持续追踪。尽管单个概率偏低，但它们是投机交易者的重要对冲：

• 替代选项：包括 Germany (950%)、Netherlands (900%)，以及 Italy (600%)。
• 投机成交：尽管统计概率偏低，像 Greece 这类长尾合约仍吸引着可观的关注。

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.

For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.

Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.

Qualifying confirmations include statements such as official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.