What will Elon post this week? (July 13 - July 19)

根据「What will Elon post this week? (July 13 - July 19)」的最新预测市场数据，交易者已形成强烈共识。

目前，Tesla 以压倒性的 7,450% 获胜概率主导市场；IPO 以 7,350% 位居第二，Never 以 6,650% 排名第三。该市场的下注量已达 —，反映出市场的高度关注。

为了更好地评估各潜在结果的位置，可依据隐含概率与合约定价将市场划分为三个明显的交易梯队：

🥇 第一梯队：绝对领跑者

• Tesla (7,450%)：Tesla 目前拥有最高概率，深受订单簿青睐。看好该结果的交易者面对的「Buy Yes」合约价为 7,450¢，显示出市场的高度确信。

🥈 第二梯队：主要挑战者

• IPO (7,350%)：作为最可行的替代选项，IPO 保持着 7,350% 的成真概率，其「Buy Yes」份额目前成交价为 7,350¢。
• Never (6,650%)：以 6,650% 的概率位列第三，市场对 Never 持谨慎怀疑态度，除非势头转变，否则视其为外围黑马。

🥉 第三梯队：长尾选项（合计约 0%）

在前三名之外，还有大量宏观变量与冷门结果被持续追踪。尽管单个概率偏低，但它们是投机交易者的重要对冲：

• 替代选项：包括 Trump (5,650%)、Football (4,050%)，以及 President (4,050%)。
• 投机成交：尽管统计概率偏低，像 Neuralink 这类长尾合约仍吸引着可观的关注。

This market will resolve to "Yes" if @elonmusk posts the listed term between July 13, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and July 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

For the purposes of this market, all text posted by the listed account in quote and reply posts count toward a "Yes" resolution, but quoted posts and reposts will not count.

Text posted in images, memes, or other non-animated, non-video media that are not strictly text will qualify towards a "Yes" resolution only if the listed term is spelled out clearly and in full. (e.g., words spelled out in a letter posted as a .jpg will qualify, however a word posted as part of an animated .gif will not.)

Any plural or possessive forms of a listed term, as well as variance in capitalizations, will count toward the resolution of this market, regardless of context. Other forms of the listed term will NOT count.

Extraneous symbols being inserted into a word (ex: r@d1cal, for "radical") will disqualify it from counting toward a "Yes" resolution. Sigils at the beginnings of words, such as hashtags, "@" symbols, or denotations of currency, will not disqualify a term from counting towards a "Yes" resolution.

Misspellings or iterations of the listed term, including all grammatical or slang forms, or misspellings with extra, missing, or incorrect letters (ex: helloooooooo or heoll, for ‘hello’), will not count toward a “Yes” resolution, regardless of context or intent.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

The resolution source for this market will be Elon Musk's verified X account: @elonmusk

Please note, only the @elonmusk verified X account counts for this market, regardless of the URL for this profile. If Elon Musk posts from another account, it has no bearing on the resolution of this market.