What will be the #2 US Netflix show this week?
核心摘要
根据「What will be the #2 US Netflix show this week?」的最新预测市场数据，交易者已形成强烈共识。
目前，Little House on the Prairie: Season 1 以压倒性的 89.4% 获胜概率主导市场；Worst Neighbor Ever: Season 1 以 10.5% 位居第二，I Will Find You: Limited Series 以 2.1% 排名第三。该市场的下注量已达 $49.1K，反映出市场的高度关注。
竞争梯队拆解
为了更好地评估各潜在结果的位置，可依据隐含概率与合约定价将市场划分为三个明显的交易梯队：
🥇 第一梯队：绝对领跑者
- Little House on the Prairie: Season 1 (89.4%)：Little House on the Prairie: Season 1 目前拥有最高概率，深受订单簿青睐。看好该结果的交易者面对的「Buy Yes」合约价为 89¢，显示出市场的高度确信。仅该合约就已产生 $17.1K 的成交量。
🥈 第二梯队：主要挑战者
- Worst Neighbor Ever: Season 1 (10.5%)：作为最可行的替代选项，Worst Neighbor Ever: Season 1 保持着 10.5% 的成真概率，其「Buy Yes」份额目前成交价为 10¢。
- I Will Find You: Limited Series (2.1%)：以 2.1% 的概率位列第三，市场对 I Will Find You: Limited Series 持谨慎怀疑态度，除非势头转变，否则视其为外围黑马。
🥉 第三梯队：长尾选项（合计约 0%）
在前三名之外，还有大量宏观变量与冷门结果被持续追踪。尽管单个概率偏低，但它们是投机交易者的重要对冲：
- 替代选项：包括 The Hawk: Season 1 (1.3%)、Quarterback: Season 3 (0.1%)，以及 The Ultimatum: Marry or Move On: Season 4 (0.1%)。
- 投机成交：尽管统计概率偏低，像 Dark Winds: Season 4 这类长尾合约仍吸引着可观的关注。
完整订单簿与定价面板
下表列出了该预测池中所有结果的合约价格、概率与市场深度的完整拆解：
| 排名 | 预测结果 | 获胜概率 | 成交量 | 买入 Yes（成本） | 买入 No（成本） |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Little House on the Prairie: Season 1 | 89.4% | $17.1K | 89¢ | 11¢ |
| 2 | Worst Neighbor Ever: Season 1 | 10.4% | $4.5K | 10¢ | 90¢ |
| 3 | I Will Find You: Limited Series | 2.1% | $15.6K | 2¢ | 98¢ |
| 4 | The Hawk: Season 1 | 1.3% | $7.9K | 1¢ | 99¢ |
| 5 | Quarterback: Season 3 | 0.1% | $688 | 0¢ | 100¢ |
| 6 | The Ultimatum: Marry or Move On: Season 4 | 0.1% | $576 | 0¢ | 100¢ |
| 7 | Dark Winds: Season 4 | 0.1% | $605 | 0¢ | 100¢ |
| 8 | Avatar: The Last Airbender: Season 2 | 0.1% | $632 | 0¢ | 100¢ |
| 9 | Sullivan's Crossing: Season 4 | 0.1% | $730 | 0¢ | 100¢ |
| 10 | Salish & Jordan Matter: Season 2 | 0.1% | $732 | 0¢ | 100¢ |
裁决规则
Netflix is expected to update its Top 10 TV shows list on top10.netflix.com on Tuesday, July 21, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, reflecting viewership from the previous week (Monday to Sunday).
This market will resolve based on which show this update ranks as the #2 US Netflix show.
The ranking is based on total views in the United States, as reported by Netflix for TV shows.
If the top10.netflix.com update does not occur by July 24, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
AI 估值分析：发现市场错误定价与 EV 差
人群共识与投机成交塑造了更宏观的预测市场，而我们的量化算法提供了数据驱动的反向视角。通过分析基本面信号、底层趋势与历史分布，我们的 AI 估值模型为每个结果独立测算出一个「公允价值」概率。
将该公允价值与当前交易价值对比，可揭示出重大背离——即期望值（EV）差。正 EV 差代表统计上被低估的结果，而负 EV 差则提示市场可能存在反应过度。
顶级 AI Alpha 与错误定价套利机会
根据最新一轮数据模型测算，以下几个关键合约存在显著偏离：
- 最被高估的结果：Little House on the Prairie: Season 1 当前交易价为 89.4%，但我们的 AI 测算其公允价值仅为 67.2%，形成 -22.3% 的较大负 EV 差，表明人群可能过度炒作该结果、把溢价推得过高。
- 最佳价值标的（最高 EV）：我们的模型将 Quarterback: Season 3 识别为盘面上最具价值的机会。市场仅给予其 0.1% 的交易概率，而我们 AI 的公允价值评估为 23.6%——形成可观的 +23.5% EV 差。
- 被忽视的黑马：其他值得注意的偏离包括 The Ultimatum: Marry or Move On: Season 4（EV 差：+20.2%）以及 Dark Winds: Season 4（EV 差：+20.2%）。尽管我们的预测模型给予更强的统计支撑，这些长尾机会仍被实时订单簿大幅低估。
| Market | Trade Value | Fair Value | EV Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Little House on the Prairie: Season 1 | 89.4% | 67.2% | -22.3% |
| Worst Neighbor Ever: Season 1 | 10.4% | 2.0% | -8.5% |
| I Will Find You: Limited Series | 2.1% | 4.6% | +2.6% |
| The Hawk: Season 1 | 1.3% | 7.2% | +5.9% |
| Quarterback: Season 3Best EV | 0.1% | 23.6% | +23.5% |
| The Ultimatum: Marry or Move On: Season 4 | 0.1% | 20.3% | +20.2% |
| Dark Winds: Season 4 | 0.1% | 20.3% | +20.2% |
| Avatar: The Last Airbender: Season 2 | 0.1% | 14.1% | +14.0% |
| Sullivan's Crossing: Season 4 | 0.1% | 14.3% | +14.2% |
| Salish & Jordan Matter: Season 2 | 0.1% | 14.3% | +14.2% |
交易动态
以下是该事件的交易动态。
Jul 21, 2026
- 06:27 AMKYkyIiandictador$233.70
Sold 246 Yes for Will "Little House on the Prairie: Season 1" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? at 0.95
- 06:11 AMICIceqbedoo$4.79
Sold 5.1 Yes for Will "Little House on the Prairie: Season 1" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? at 0.94
- 04:54 AMRAraydu$5.02
Bought 5.170606 Yes for Will "Little House on the Prairie: Season 1" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? at 0.97
- 03:57 AMSUsuntori$9.55
Bought 9.951238 Yes for Will "Little House on the Prairie: Season 1" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? at 0.96
- 03:40 AMGAGaditima$4.70
Bought 5 Yes for Will "Little House on the Prairie: Season 1" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? at 0.94
- 03:40 AMONoneoftheppl$10.35
Bought 11.006339 Yes for Will "Little House on the Prairie: Season 1" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? at 0.94
- 03:39 AMDUDuneMentat$84.60
Bought 90 Yes for Will "Little House on the Prairie: Season 1" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? at 0.94
- 03:36 AMDUDuneMentat$61.10
Bought 65 Yes for Will "Little House on the Prairie: Season 1" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? at 0.94
- 03:35 AMDUDuneMentat$94.00
Bought 100 Yes for Will "Little House on the Prairie: Season 1" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? at 0.94
- 03:35 AMPEpenguinec$0.01
Bought 0.01 Yes for Will "Little House on the Prairie: Season 1" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? at 0.87
- 03:29 AMPFpfennigfuchs2.0$5.07
Sold 5.28 No for Will "I Will Find You: Limited Series" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? at 0.96
- 03:29 AMDUDuneMentat$221.70
Bought 226.226682 No for Will "I Will Find You: Limited Series" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? at 0.98
正在押注该事件的鲸鱼钱包
常见问题
当前市场对「What will be the #2 US Netflix show this week?」的共识是什么？
截至最新更新，Little House on the Prairie: Season 1 以 89.4% 的获胜概率领跑，其次是 Worst Neighbor Ever: Season 1（10.5%），以及 I Will Find You: Limited Series（2.1%）。该市场总成交量已达 $49.1K，显示出充足的流动性与高交易参与度。
AI 公允价值与实时市场交易价值有何不同？
实时市场交易价值反映的是公众情绪、订单簿动能与投机资金。我们的 AI 公允价值则由量化模型独立计算，剔除情绪炒作、专注底层数据。两者出现显著背离时即形成 EV 差，提示市场对某个结果可能存在错误定价。
当前哪个结果的期望值（EV）最高？
最新一轮测算显示，Quarterback: Season 3 是最显著的错误定价。市场对其隐含概率仅给到 0.1%，而我们的 AI 测算其公允价值为 23.6%——形成 +23.5% 的期望值差，是该市场中最具价值的标的。
市场共识是否对某个结果反应过度？
是的——数据显示市场对 Little House on the Prairie: Season 1 存在明显的反应过度。人群把其实时交易价值推高至 89.4%，但我们的公允价值评估认为其真实概率仅为 67.2%，形成 -22.3% 的负 EV 差，表明该合约被高估。
长尾数据中是否藏有高价值的黑马选项？
当然有。除了头部结果之外，我们的模型在排名靠后的选项中发现了被低估的潜力。The Ultimatum: Marry or Move On: Season 4 拥有 +20.2% 的正 EV 差，Dark Winds: Season 4 则为 +20.2%。尽管量化层面更有支撑，这些合约仍被实时订单簿低估。