What will be said during the MSI 2026 Grand Finals?

根据「What will be said during the MSI 2026 Grand Finals?」的最新预测市场数据，交易者已形成强烈共识。

目前，Gold 30+ times 以压倒性的 7,950% 获胜概率主导市场；Level 15+ times 以 7,900% 位居第二，Dive 10+ times 以 7,600% 排名第三。该市场的下注量已达 $94，反映出市场的高度关注。

为了更好地评估各潜在结果的位置，可依据隐含概率与合约定价将市场划分为三个明显的交易梯队：

🥇 第一梯队：绝对领跑者

• Gold 30+ times (7,950%)：Gold 30+ times 目前拥有最高概率，深受订单簿青睐。看好该结果的交易者面对的「Buy Yes」合约价为 7,950¢，显示出市场的高度确信。

🥈 第二梯队：主要挑战者

• Level 15+ times (7,900%)：作为最可行的替代选项，Level 15+ times 保持着 7,900% 的成真概率，其「Buy Yes」份额目前成交价为 7,900¢。
• Dive 10+ times (7,600%)：以 7,600% 的概率位列第三，市场对 Dive 10+ times 持谨慎怀疑态度，除非势头转变，否则视其为外围黑马。

🥉 第三梯队：长尾选项（合计约 0%）

在前三名之外，还有大量宏观变量与冷门结果被持续追踪。尽管单个概率偏低，但它们是投机交易者的重要对冲：

• 替代选项：包括 Punish / Punishing 5+ times (7,600%)、Four Items / Fourth Item (7,600%)，以及 Dominating / Domination (7,600%)。
• 投机成交：尽管统计概率偏低，像 Legendary 这类长尾合约仍吸引着可观的关注。

The MSI 2026 Grand Finals is scheduled for July 12, 2026, 2 AM ET.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed term is mentioned by anyone during the official English broadcast of the MSI 2026 Grand Finals. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based on the events of the MSI 2026 Grand Finals, beginning from the moment the match timer of the first match appears on screen, and ending once the official English livestream concludes. Anything aired before the first game will not be considered.

Mentions of the term originating from in-game audio—even in-game characters, the in-game announcer, or player voice comms—will also count toward this market's resolution.

If this event is definitively cancelled or otherwise not aired by July 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, "-No Qualifying Event-" will resolve to "Yes" and all other brackets will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be the FULL official English livestream of the MSI 2026 Grand Finals at https://youtube.com/@lolesports.

For full rules, see: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Event+Mentions+Contract+DeFi.pdf