What will be said during the eighth episode of Rick and Morty: Season 9?

$239 Vol
2026年7月13日
Active
概率趋势
Chart 99.4%
Morty 20+ times 52.0%
Simulation 51.0%
Possible / Impossible 51.0%
Car 50.5%

核心摘要

根据「What will be said during the eighth episode of Rick and Morty: Season 9?」的最新预测市场数据,交易者已形成强烈共识。

目前,Chart 以压倒性的 9,940% 获胜概率主导市场;Morty 20+ times 以 5,200% 位居第二,Simulation 以 5,100% 排名第三。该市场的下注量已达 $239,反映出市场的高度关注。

竞争梯队拆解

为了更好地评估各潜在结果的位置,可依据隐含概率与合约定价将市场划分为三个明显的交易梯队:

🥇 第一梯队:绝对领跑者

  • Chart (9,940%):Chart 目前拥有最高概率,深受订单簿青睐。看好该结果的交易者面对的「Buy Yes」合约价为 9,940¢,显示出市场的高度确信。仅该合约就已产生 $50 的成交量。

🥈 第二梯队:主要挑战者

  • Morty 20+ times (5,200%):作为最可行的替代选项,Morty 20+ times 保持着 5,200% 的成真概率,其「Buy Yes」份额目前成交价为 5,200¢。
  • Simulation (5,100%):以 5,100% 的概率位列第三,市场对 Simulation 持谨慎怀疑态度,除非势头转变,否则视其为外围黑马。

🥉 第三梯队:长尾选项(合计约 0%)

在前三名之外,还有大量宏观变量与冷门结果被持续追踪。尽管单个概率偏低,但它们是投机交易者的重要对冲:

  • 替代选项:包括 Possible / Impossible (5,100%)、Car (5,050%),以及 Space (5,050%)。
  • 投机成交:尽管统计概率偏低,像 Alien 这类长尾合约仍吸引着可观的关注。

完整订单簿与定价面板

下表列出了该预测池中所有结果的合约价格、概率与市场深度的完整拆解:

排名预测结果获胜概率成交量买入 Yes(成本)买入 No(成本)
1Chart9940.0%$509940¢-9840¢
2Morty 20+ times5200.0%5200¢-5100¢
3Simulation5100.0%5100¢-5000¢
4Possible / Impossible5100.0%5100¢-5000¢
5Car5050.0%5050¢-4950¢
6Space5050.0%5050¢-4950¢
7Alien5050.0%5050¢-4950¢
8Drug5050.0%5050¢-4950¢
9Multiverse5050.0%5050¢-4950¢
10Receipt5050.0%5050¢-4950¢
11Trauma5050.0%5050¢-4950¢
12Clone5050.0%5050¢-4950¢
13Rick 20+ times5000.0%5000¢-4900¢
14Summer 5+ times5000.0%5000¢-4900¢
15God4950.0%4950¢-4850¢
16Password4700.0%4700¢-4600¢
17Free4700.0%4700¢-4600¢
18Six Seven3700.0%3700¢-3600¢
19-No Qualifying Event-2785.0%$1892785¢-2685¢

裁决规则

Episode 8 of Rick and Morty Season 9 is scheduled to air on July 12, 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if anyone says the listed term during the specified episode of Rick and Morty. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

If this episode of Rick and Morty has not been released in its entirety by July 13, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on what has been released up to that point. If no episode has been released by this time, or if the release is otherwise definitively cancelled, "-No Qualifying Event-" will resolve to "Yes" and all other brackets will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be the initial release of the named episode of Rick and Morty. Reruns, re-releases, or transcripts which differ from the initially released episode will not be considered.

For full rules, see: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Event+Mentions+Contract+DeFi.pdf

常见问题

当前市场对「What will be said during the eighth episode of Rick and Morty: Season 9?」的共识是什么?

截至最新更新,Chart 以 9,940% 的获胜概率领跑,其次是 Morty 20+ times(5,200%),以及 Simulation(5,100%)。该市场总成交量已达 $239,显示出充足的流动性与高交易参与度。

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