WA-03 Primary First Place

根据「WA-03 Primary First Place」的最新预测市场数据，交易者已形成强烈共识。

目前，Antony Barran 以压倒性的 4,400% 获胜概率主导市场；John Braun 以 4,400% 位居第二，Marie Gluesenkamp Perez 以 4,400% 排名第三。该市场的下注量已达 —，反映出市场的高度关注。

为了更好地评估各潜在结果的位置，可依据隐含概率与合约定价将市场划分为三个明显的交易梯队：

🥇 第一梯队：绝对领跑者

• Antony Barran (4,400%)：Antony Barran 目前拥有最高概率，深受订单簿青睐。看好该结果的交易者面对的「Buy Yes」合约价为 4,400¢，显示出市场的高度确信。

🥈 第二梯队：主要挑战者

• John Braun (4,400%)：作为最可行的替代选项，John Braun 保持着 4,400% 的成真概率，其「Buy Yes」份额目前成交价为 4,400¢。
• Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (4,400%)：以 4,400% 的概率位列第三，市场对 Marie Gluesenkamp Perez 持谨慎怀疑态度，除非势头转变，否则视其为外围黑马。

🥉 第三梯队：长尾选项（合计约 0%）

在前三名之外，还有大量宏观变量与冷门结果被持续追踪。尽管单个概率偏低，但它们是投机交易者的重要对冲：

• 替代选项：包括 Brent Hennrich (4,400%)、Austin Braswell (4,400%)，以及 Lawrence Kellogg (4,400%)。
• 投机成交：尽管统计概率偏低，像 John Saulie-Rohman 这类长尾合约仍吸引着可观的关注。

The non-partisan primary election for the WA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives is scheduled to take place on August 4, 2026. The two candidates who receive the most votes in this primary election will qualify for the General Election.

This market will resolve to “Yes” If the listed candidate earns the most votes in the WA-03 non-partisan primary election.

The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If no 2026 WA-03 congressional district primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.”

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the State of Washington.