
Will U.S. Bancorp (USB) beat quarterly earnings?
核心摘要
根据「Will U.S. Bancorp (USB) beat quarterly earnings?」的最新预测市场数据,交易者已形成强烈共识。
目前,Yes 以压倒性的 8,650% 获胜概率主导市场;No 以 1,350% 位居第二。该市场的下注量已达 $3.3K,反映出市场的高度关注。
竞争梯队拆解
为了更好地评估各潜在结果的位置,可依据隐含概率与合约定价将市场划分为三个明显的交易梯队:
🥇 第一梯队:绝对领跑者
- Yes (8,650%):Yes 目前拥有最高概率,深受订单簿青睐。看好该结果的交易者面对的「Buy Yes」合约价为 8,650¢,显示出市场的高度确信。
🥈 第二梯队:主要挑战者
- No (1,350%):作为最可行的替代选项,No 保持着 1,350% 的成真概率,其「Buy Yes」份额目前成交价为 1,350¢。
完整订单簿与定价面板
下表列出了该预测池中所有结果的合约价格、概率与市场深度的完整拆解:
| 排名 | 预测结果 | 获胜概率 | 成交量 | 买入 Yes(成本) | 买入 No(成本) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yes | 8650.0% | — | 8650¢ | -8550¢ |
| 2 | No | 1350.0% | — | 1350¢ | -1250¢ |
裁决规则
As of market creation, U.S. Bancorp is estimated to release earnings on July 16, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for U.S. Bancorp's GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $1.27 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. Bancorp reports GAAP EPS greater than $1.27 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents.
If U.S. Bancorp releases earnings without GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve to “No”.
If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.”
Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024).
Note: The strike prices used in these markets are derived from SeekingAlpha estimates, and reflect the consensus of sell-side analyst estimates for GAAP EPS.
Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding.
Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS.
Note: For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless this is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.
Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated.
Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.
常见问题
当前市场对「Will U.S. Bancorp (USB) beat quarterly earnings?」的共识是什么?
截至最新更新,Yes 以 8,650% 的获胜概率领跑,其次是 No(1,350%)。该市场总成交量已达 $3.3K,显示出充足的流动性与高交易参与度。
