UFC 329: Robert Whittaker vs. Nikita Krylov (Light Heavyweight, Prelims)

$80.8K Vol
2026年7月12日
Active
概率趋势
Robert Whittaker 52.5%
Nikita Krylov 47.5%

核心摘要

根据「UFC 329: Robert Whittaker vs. Nikita Krylov (Light Heavyweight, Prelims)」的最新预测市场数据，交易者已形成强烈共识。

目前，Fight to Go the Distance? 以压倒性的 39.5% 获胜概率主导市场。该市场的下注量已达 $80.8K，反映出市场的高度关注。

竞争梯队拆解

为了更好地评估各潜在结果的位置，可依据隐含概率与合约定价将市场划分为三个明显的交易梯队：

🥇 第一梯队：绝对领跑者

  • Fight to Go the Distance? (39.5%)：Fight to Go the Distance? 目前拥有最高概率，深受订单簿青睐。看好该结果的交易者面对的「Buy Yes」合约价为 40¢，显示出市场的高度确信。仅该合约就已产生 $698 的成交量。

完整订单簿与定价面板

下表列出了该预测池中所有结果的合约价格、概率与市场深度的完整拆解：

排名预测结果获胜概率成交量买入 Yes（成本）买入 No（成本）
1Fight to Go the Distance?39.5%$69840¢61¢

裁决规则

This market will resolve to "Robert Whittaker" if Robert Whittaker is officially declared the winner of the fight against Nikita Krylov at UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2, scheduled for July 11, 2026.

It will resolve to "Nikita Krylov" if Nikita Krylov is officially declared the winner.

If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond July 25, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50."

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

AI 估值分析：发现市场错误定价与 EV 差

人群共识与投机成交塑造了更宏观的预测市场，而我们的量化算法提供了数据驱动的反向视角。通过分析基本面信号、底层趋势与历史分布，我们的 AI 估值模型为每个结果独立测算出一个「公允价值」概率。

将该公允价值与当前交易价值对比，可揭示出重大背离——即期望值（EV）差。正 EV 差代表统计上被低估的结果，而负 EV 差则提示市场可能存在反应过度。

顶级 AI Alpha 与错误定价套利机会

根据最新一轮数据模型测算，以下几个关键合约存在显著偏离：

  • 最被高估的结果：Fight to Go the Distance? 当前交易价为 39.5%，但我们的 AI 测算其公允价值仅为 16.4%，形成 -23.1% 的较大负 EV 差，表明人群可能过度炒作该结果、把溢价推得过高。
MarketTrade ValueFair ValueEV Gap
Fight to Go the Distance?39.5%16.4%-23.1%

交易动态

以下是该事件的交易动态。

Jul 10, 2026

  • 07:49 PM
    CHchopboys
    $2.00

    Bought 4.17 Nikita Krylov for UFC 329: Robert Whittaker vs. Nikita Krylov (Light Heavyweight, Prelims) at 0.48

  • 07:48 PM
    CHchopboys
    $2.00

    Bought 3.78 Robert Whittaker for UFC 329: Robert Whittaker vs. Nikita Krylov (Light Heavyweight, Prelims) at 0.53

  • 07:29 PM
    TRTralaleloTralalala
    $55.00

    Bought 114.583332 Nikita Krylov for UFC 329: Robert Whittaker vs. Nikita Krylov (Light Heavyweight, Prelims) at 0.48

  • 07:07 PM
    VEVeryLucky888
    $206.28

    Bought 396.69 Robert Whittaker for UFC 329: Robert Whittaker vs. Nikita Krylov (Light Heavyweight, Prelims) at 0.52

  • 07:01 PM
    RORogerciriaco
    $104.00

    Bought 200 Robert Whittaker for UFC 329: Robert Whittaker vs. Nikita Krylov (Light Heavyweight, Prelims) at 0.52

  • 07:00 PM
    0X0x108dEF0C668dd55082AFcaa03CCC3D02Df5cb85D-1765118750975
    $21.67

    Bought 45.14 Nikita Krylov for UFC 329: Robert Whittaker vs. Nikita Krylov (Light Heavyweight, Prelims) at 0.48

  • 06:55 PM
    H4h4G654
    $1.25

    Bought 2.358489 Robert Whittaker for UFC 329: Robert Whittaker vs. Nikita Krylov (Light Heavyweight, Prelims) at 0.53

  • 06:55 PM
    ——
    $2.12

    Sold 4.07 Robert Whittaker for UFC 329: Robert Whittaker vs. Nikita Krylov (Light Heavyweight, Prelims) at 0.52

  • 06:54 PM
    JOjonathanfrake11
    $6.21

    Bought 11.71698 Robert Whittaker for UFC 329: Robert Whittaker vs. Nikita Krylov (Light Heavyweight, Prelims) at 0.53

  • 06:54 PM
    TRtrader-f32417a3
    $3.81

    Sold 7.33 Robert Whittaker for UFC 329: Robert Whittaker vs. Nikita Krylov (Light Heavyweight, Prelims) at 0.52

  • 06:54 PM
    TRtrader-8fff0181
    $1.24

    Sold 2.38 Robert Whittaker for UFC 329: Robert Whittaker vs. Nikita Krylov (Light Heavyweight, Prelims) at 0.52

  • 06:54 PM
    ——
    $0.81

    Sold 1.56 Robert Whittaker for UFC 329: Robert Whittaker vs. Nikita Krylov (Light Heavyweight, Prelims) at 0.52

正在押注该事件的鲸鱼钱包

JA1
JAMJAMJAM4
Event PnL
+$548.97
Volume
$12,209.68
Positions
Nikita Krylov
BE2
beet420
Event PnL
+$314.51
Volume
$4,193.50
Positions
Nikita Krylov
CA3
cat3xcat3x
Event PnL
-$307.50
Volume
$4,100.00
Positions
Robert Whittaker
EL4
elmcap2
Event PnL
-$16.58
Volume
$3,316.46
Positions
Robert Whittaker
GA5
GambleFroth
Event PnL
-$87.50
Volume
$2,499.97
Positions
Robert Whittaker
VE6
VeryLucky888
Event PnL
+$27.05
Volume
$2,376.32
Positions
Nikita Krylov
GA7
Gaditima
Event PnL
-$31.18
Volume
$2,034.17
Positions
Robert WhittakerNo
TH8
third-eye
Event PnL
+$25.00
Volume
$1,666.67
Positions
Nikita Krylov

常见问题

当前市场对「UFC 329: Robert Whittaker vs. Nikita Krylov (Light Heavyweight, Prelims)」的共识是什么？

截至最新更新，Fight to Go the Distance? 以 39.5% 的获胜概率领跑。该市场总成交量已达 $80.8K，显示出充足的流动性与高交易参与度。

AI 公允价值与实时市场交易价值有何不同？

实时市场交易价值反映的是公众情绪、订单簿动能与投机资金。我们的 AI 公允价值则由量化模型独立计算，剔除情绪炒作、专注底层数据。两者出现显著背离时即形成 EV 差，提示市场对某个结果可能存在错误定价。

市场共识是否对某个结果反应过度？

是的——数据显示市场对 Fight to Go the Distance? 存在明显的反应过度。人群把其实时交易价值推高至 39.5%，但我们的公允价值评估认为其真实概率仅为 16.4%，形成 -23.1% 的负 EV 差，表明该合约被高估。

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