UFC 329: King Green vs. Terrance McKinney (Lightweight, Main Card)

$63.3K Vol
2026年7月12日
Active
概率趋势
Terrance McKinney 50.5%
King Green 49.5%

核心摘要

根据「UFC 329: King Green vs. Terrance McKinney (Lightweight, Main Card)」的最新预测市场数据，交易者已形成强烈共识。

目前，Fight won by KO/TKO? 以压倒性的 59.5% 获胜概率主导市场；McKinney to win by KO/TKO? 以 30% 位居第二。该市场的下注量已达 $63.3K，反映出市场的高度关注。

竞争梯队拆解

为了更好地评估各潜在结果的位置，可依据隐含概率与合约定价将市场划分为三个明显的交易梯队：

🥇 第一梯队：绝对领跑者

  • Fight won by KO/TKO? (59.5%)：Fight won by KO/TKO? 目前拥有最高概率，深受订单簿青睐。看好该结果的交易者面对的「Buy Yes」合约价为 60¢，显示出市场的高度确信。仅该合约就已产生 $316 的成交量。

🥈 第二梯队：主要挑战者

  • McKinney to win by KO/TKO? (30%)：作为最可行的替代选项，McKinney to win by KO/TKO? 保持着 30% 的成真概率，其「Buy Yes」份额目前成交价为 30¢。

完整订单簿与定价面板

下表列出了该预测池中所有结果的合约价格、概率与市场深度的完整拆解：

排名预测结果获胜概率成交量买入 Yes（成本）买入 No（成本）
1Fight won by KO/TKO?59.5%$31660¢41¢
2McKinney to win by KO/TKO?30.0%$6030¢70¢

裁决规则

This market will resolve to "King Green" if King Green is officially declared the winner of the fight against Terrance McKinney at UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2, scheduled for July 11, 2026.

It will resolve to "Terrance McKinney" if Terrance McKinney is officially declared the winner.

If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond July 25, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50."

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

AI 估值分析：发现市场错误定价与 EV 差

人群共识与投机成交塑造了更宏观的预测市场，而我们的量化算法提供了数据驱动的反向视角。通过分析基本面信号、底层趋势与历史分布，我们的 AI 估值模型为每个结果独立测算出一个「公允价值」概率。

将该公允价值与当前交易价值对比，可揭示出重大背离——即期望值（EV）差。正 EV 差代表统计上被低估的结果，而负 EV 差则提示市场可能存在反应过度。

顶级 AI Alpha 与错误定价套利机会

根据最新一轮数据模型测算，以下几个关键合约存在显著偏离：

  • 最被高估的结果：McKinney to win by KO/TKO? 当前交易价为 30%，但我们的 AI 测算其公允价值仅为 1%，形成 -29% 的较大负 EV 差，表明人群可能过度炒作该结果、把溢价推得过高。
  • 最佳价值标的（最高 EV）：我们的模型将 Fight won by KO/TKO? 识别为盘面上最具价值的机会。市场仅给予其 59.5% 的交易概率，而我们 AI 的公允价值评估为 67%——形成可观的 +7.5% EV 差。
MarketTrade ValueFair ValueEV Gap
Fight won by KO/TKO?Best EV59.5%67.0%+7.5%
McKinney to win by KO/TKO?30.0%1.0%-29.0%

交易动态

以下是该事件的交易动态。

Jul 10, 2026

  • 07:52 PM
    0X0xae014Dca9aF9781dB4377718b15A7b35b680A952-1758797179036
    $1.00

    Bought 2 King Green for UFC 329: King Green vs. Terrance McKinney (Lightweight, Main Card) at 0.5

  • 07:49 PM
    CHchopboys
    $2.00

    Bought 4 King Green for UFC 329: King Green vs. Terrance McKinney (Lightweight, Main Card) at 0.5

  • 07:48 PM
    CHchopboys
    $2.00

    Bought 3.93 Terrance McKinney for UFC 329: King Green vs. Terrance McKinney (Lightweight, Main Card) at 0.51

  • 07:48 PM
    CHchopboys
    $24.98

    Bought 48.98 Terrance McKinney for UFC 329: King Green vs. Terrance McKinney (Lightweight, Main Card) at 0.51

  • 07:46 PM
    TItimezonewarrior
    $2,369.15

    Bought 4835 King Green for UFC 329: King Green vs. Terrance McKinney (Lightweight, Main Card) at 0.49

  • 07:39 PM
    0X0xDune0104
    $3.06

    Sold 6 Terrance McKinney for UFC 329: King Green vs. Terrance McKinney (Lightweight, Main Card) at 0.51

  • 07:39 PM
    JOjonathanfrake11
    $5.32

    Sold 11.08 King Green for UFC 329: King Green vs. Terrance McKinney (Lightweight, Main Card) at 0.48

  • 07:39 PM
    VEVeryLucky888
    $557.46

    Bought 1161.37 King Green for UFC 329: King Green vs. Terrance McKinney (Lightweight, Main Card) at 0.48

  • 07:29 PM
    TRTralaleloTralalala
    $33.00

    Bought 62.264148 Terrance McKinney for UFC 329: King Green vs. Terrance McKinney (Lightweight, Main Card) at 0.53

  • 07:20 PM
    0X0x8b81cCE898c3c9d737fcA82dbA70f7ebf418988C-1781024142222
    $1.00

    Bought 1.886791 Terrance McKinney for UFC 329: King Green vs. Terrance McKinney (Lightweight, Main Card) at 0.53

  • 06:46 PM
    0X0x50Fe43C8fd260197D0e8c23292CfC28915004920-1777734921689
    $20.00

    Bought 41.666665 King Green for UFC 329: King Green vs. Terrance McKinney (Lightweight, Main Card) at 0.48

  • 06:14 PM
    ——
    $6.98

    Sold 14.86 King Green for UFC 329: King Green vs. Terrance McKinney (Lightweight, Main Card) at 0.47

正在押注该事件的鲸鱼钱包

TI1
timezonewarrior
Event PnL
+$282.51
Volume
$34,210.29
Positions
King Green
VE2
VeryLucky888
Event PnL
+$0.00
Volume
$14,519.22
Positions
Terrance McKinney
BO3
boomingtest
Event PnL
+$0.00
Volume
$7,897.36
Positions
Terrance McKinney
JA4
JAMJAMJAM4
Event PnL
+$0.00
Volume
$4,892.99
Positions
Terrance McKinney
FE5
0xFEd2…1578
Event PnL
+$0.00
Volume
$3,202.40
Positions
Terrance McKinney
FE6
0xFe77…9271
Event PnL
+$0.00
Volume
$2,568.00
Positions
Terrance McKinney
GA7
GambleFroth
Event PnL
+$120.02
Volume
$2,154.05
Positions
King Green
TH8
third-eye
Event PnL
+$0.00
Volume
$1,315.79
Positions
Terrance McKinney

常见问题

当前市场对「UFC 329: King Green vs. Terrance McKinney (Lightweight, Main Card)」的共识是什么？

截至最新更新，Fight won by KO/TKO? 以 59.5% 的获胜概率领跑，其次是 McKinney to win by KO/TKO?（30%）。该市场总成交量已达 $63.3K，显示出充足的流动性与高交易参与度。

AI 公允价值与实时市场交易价值有何不同？

实时市场交易价值反映的是公众情绪、订单簿动能与投机资金。我们的 AI 公允价值则由量化模型独立计算，剔除情绪炒作、专注底层数据。两者出现显著背离时即形成 EV 差，提示市场对某个结果可能存在错误定价。

当前哪个结果的期望值（EV）最高？

最新一轮测算显示，Fight won by KO/TKO? 是最显著的错误定价。市场对其隐含概率仅给到 59.5%，而我们的 AI 测算其公允价值为 67%——形成 +7.5% 的期望值差，是该市场中最具价值的标的。

市场共识是否对某个结果反应过度？

是的——数据显示市场对 McKinney to win by KO/TKO? 存在明显的反应过度。人群把其实时交易价值推高至 30%，但我们的公允价值评估认为其真实概率仅为 1%，形成 -29% 的负 EV 差，表明该合约被高估。

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