UFC Fight Night: Felipe Franco vs. Levi Rodrigues Jr. (Light Heavyweight, Prelims)
核心摘要
根据「UFC Fight Night: Felipe Franco vs. Levi Rodrigues Jr. (Light Heavyweight, Prelims)」的最新预测市场数据，交易者已形成强烈共识。
目前，Felipe Franco vs. Levi Rodrigues Jr. 以压倒性的 5,000% 获胜概率主导市场；Fight to Go the Distance? 以 5,000% 位居第二，Fight won by KO/TKO? 以 5,000% 排名第三。该市场的下注量已达 —，反映出市场的高度关注。
竞争梯队拆解
为了更好地评估各潜在结果的位置，可依据隐含概率与合约定价将市场划分为三个明显的交易梯队：
🥇 第一梯队：绝对领跑者
- Felipe Franco vs. Levi Rodrigues Jr. (5,000%)：Felipe Franco vs. Levi Rodrigues Jr. 目前拥有最高概率，深受订单簿青睐。看好该结果的交易者面对的「Buy Yes」合约价为 5,000¢，显示出市场的高度确信。
🥈 第二梯队：主要挑战者
- Fight to Go the Distance? (5,000%)：作为最可行的替代选项，Fight to Go the Distance? 保持着 5,000% 的成真概率，其「Buy Yes」份额目前成交价为 5,000¢。
- Fight won by KO/TKO? (5,000%)：以 5,000% 的概率位列第三，市场对 Fight won by KO/TKO? 持谨慎怀疑态度，除非势头转变，否则视其为外围黑马。
🥉 第三梯队：长尾选项（合计约 0%）
在前三名之外，还有大量宏观变量与冷门结果被持续追踪。尽管单个概率偏低，但它们是投机交易者的重要对冲：
- 替代选项：包括 Franco to win by KO/TKO? (5,000%)、Rodrigues Jr. to win by KO/TKO? (5,000%)，以及 Fight won by submission? (5,000%)。
- 投机成交：尽管统计概率偏低，像 O/U 0.5 Rounds 这类长尾合约仍吸引着可观的关注。
完整订单簿与定价面板
下表列出了该预测池中所有结果的合约价格、概率与市场深度的完整拆解：
| 排名 | 预测结果 | 获胜概率 | 成交量 | 买入 Yes（成本） | 买入 No（成本） |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Felipe Franco vs. Levi Rodrigues Jr. | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 2 | Fight to Go the Distance? | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 3 | Fight won by KO/TKO? | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 4 | Franco to win by KO/TKO? | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 5 | Rodrigues Jr. to win by KO/TKO? | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 6 | Fight won by submission? | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 7 | O/U 0.5 Rounds | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 8 | O/U 1.5 Rounds | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 9 | O/U 2.5 Rounds | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
裁决规则
This market will resolve to "Felipe Franco" if Felipe Franco is officially declared the winner of the fight against Levi Rodrigues Jr. at UFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs. Usman, scheduled for July 18, 2026.
It will resolve to "Levi Rodrigues Jr." if Levi Rodrigues Jr. is officially declared the winner.
If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond August 1, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50."
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.
常见问题
当前市场对「UFC Fight Night: Felipe Franco vs. Levi Rodrigues Jr. (Light Heavyweight, Prelims)」的共识是什么？
截至最新更新，Felipe Franco vs. Levi Rodrigues Jr. 以 5,000% 的获胜概率领跑，其次是 Fight to Go the Distance?（5,000%），以及 Fight won by KO/TKO?（5,000%）。该市场总成交量已达 —，显示出充足的流动性与高交易参与度。