UFC 329: Cory Sandhagen vs. Mario Bautista (Bantamweight, Main Card)

$71.2K Vol
2026年7月12日
Active
概率趋势
Cory Sandhagen 56.5%
Mario Bautista 43.5%

核心摘要

根据「UFC 329: Cory Sandhagen vs. Mario Bautista (Bantamweight, Main Card)」的最新预测市场数据，交易者已形成强烈共识。

目前，Fight to Go the Distance? 以压倒性的 60% 获胜概率主导市场。该市场的下注量已达 $71.2K，反映出市场的高度关注。

竞争梯队拆解

为了更好地评估各潜在结果的位置，可依据隐含概率与合约定价将市场划分为三个明显的交易梯队：

🥇 第一梯队：绝对领跑者

  • Fight to Go the Distance? (60%)：Fight to Go the Distance? 目前拥有最高概率，深受订单簿青睐。看好该结果的交易者面对的「Buy Yes」合约价为 60¢，显示出市场的高度确信。仅该合约就已产生 $91 的成交量。

完整订单簿与定价面板

下表列出了该预测池中所有结果的合约价格、概率与市场深度的完整拆解：

排名预测结果获胜概率成交量买入 Yes（成本）买入 No（成本）
1Fight to Go the Distance?60.0%$9160¢40¢

裁决规则

This market will resolve to "Cory Sandhagen" if Cory Sandhagen is officially declared the winner of the fight against Mario Bautista at UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2, scheduled for July 11, 2026.

It will resolve to "Mario Bautista" if Mario Bautista is officially declared the winner.

If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond July 25, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50."

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

AI 估值分析：发现市场错误定价与 EV 差

人群共识与投机成交塑造了更宏观的预测市场，而我们的量化算法提供了数据驱动的反向视角。通过分析基本面信号、底层趋势与历史分布，我们的 AI 估值模型为每个结果独立测算出一个「公允价值」概率。

将该公允价值与当前交易价值对比，可揭示出重大背离——即期望值（EV）差。正 EV 差代表统计上被低估的结果，而负 EV 差则提示市场可能存在反应过度。

顶级 AI Alpha 与错误定价套利机会

根据最新一轮数据模型测算，以下几个关键合约存在显著偏离：

  • 最被高估的结果：Fight to Go the Distance? 当前交易价为 60%，但我们的 AI 测算其公允价值仅为 1%，形成 -59% 的较大负 EV 差，表明人群可能过度炒作该结果、把溢价推得过高。
MarketTrade ValueFair ValueEV Gap
Fight to Go the Distance?60.0%1.0%-59.0%

交易动态

以下是该事件的交易动态。

Jul 10, 2026

  • 07:49 PM
    CHchopboys
    $2.00

    Bought 3.58 Cory Sandhagen for UFC 329: Cory Sandhagen vs. Mario Bautista (Bantamweight, Main Card) at 0.56

  • 07:48 PM
    CHchopboys
    $2.00

    Bought 3.58 Cory Sandhagen for UFC 329: Cory Sandhagen vs. Mario Bautista (Bantamweight, Main Card) at 0.56

  • 07:34 PM
    0X0xC567fc4D87f4A4dEa1a4a3632C9C22aEbF3242fD-1781497081769
    $5.00

    Bought 11.11111 Mario Bautista for UFC 329: Cory Sandhagen vs. Mario Bautista (Bantamweight, Main Card) at 0.45

  • 06:47 PM
    0X0x50Fe43C8fd260197D0e8c23292CfC28915004920-1777734921689
    $10.00

    Bought 17.85714 Cory Sandhagen for UFC 329: Cory Sandhagen vs. Mario Bautista (Bantamweight, Main Card) at 0.56

  • 06:36 PM
    TYTylerli01
    $2.00

    Bought 4.444443 Mario Bautista for UFC 329: Cory Sandhagen vs. Mario Bautista (Bantamweight, Main Card) at 0.45

  • 06:31 PM
    SBSbe3.
    $15.00

    Bought 26.785713 Cory Sandhagen for UFC 329: Cory Sandhagen vs. Mario Bautista (Bantamweight, Main Card) at 0.56

  • 05:13 PM
    TOToxic3
    $1.00

    Bought 1.785713 Cory Sandhagen for UFC 329: Cory Sandhagen vs. Mario Bautista (Bantamweight, Main Card) at 0.56

  • 04:58 PM
    MEmetasport
    $1.68

    Bought 3 Cory Sandhagen for UFC 329: Cory Sandhagen vs. Mario Bautista (Bantamweight, Main Card) at 0.56

  • 04:54 PM
    POPolyDegener
    $15.00

    Bought 26.785713 Cory Sandhagen for UFC 329: Cory Sandhagen vs. Mario Bautista (Bantamweight, Main Card) at 0.56

  • 04:23 PM
    ——
    $4.89

    Bought 10.866665 Mario Bautista for UFC 329: Cory Sandhagen vs. Mario Bautista (Bantamweight, Main Card) at 0.45

  • 04:22 PM
    SASaturnAurum
    $4.00

    Bought 7.142856 Cory Sandhagen for UFC 329: Cory Sandhagen vs. Mario Bautista (Bantamweight, Main Card) at 0.56

  • 04:07 PM
    MAmastershi
    $34.60

    Bought 76.888887 Mario Bautista for UFC 329: Cory Sandhagen vs. Mario Bautista (Bantamweight, Main Card) at 0.45

正在押注该事件的鲸鱼钱包

TI1
timezonewarrior
Event PnL
-$169.78
Volume
$29,676.26
Positions
Mario Bautista
WH2
WHYWHYWHYWHYWHYWHY
Event PnL
-$28.02
Volume
$15,986.07
Positions
Cory Sandhagen
TE3
texaskid
Event PnL
+$41.81
Volume
$8,532.81
Positions
Cory Sandhagen
JO4
Jon-Anik-Fan
Event PnL
+$98.55
Volume
$6,613.98
Positions
Cory Sandhagen
VE5
ve3693
Event PnL
+$99.00
Volume
$6,600.00
Positions
Mario Bautista
GA6
GambleFroth
Event PnL
+$21.88
Volume
$4,464.29
Positions
Cory Sandhagen
IC7
ic4cream
Event PnL
-$60.20
Volume
$4,013.00
Positions
Mario Bautista
OG8
Ogbum
Event PnL
+$13.13
Volume
$2,678.57
Positions
Cory Sandhagen

常见问题

当前市场对「UFC 329: Cory Sandhagen vs. Mario Bautista (Bantamweight, Main Card)」的共识是什么？

截至最新更新，Fight to Go the Distance? 以 60% 的获胜概率领跑。该市场总成交量已达 $71.2K，显示出充足的流动性与高交易参与度。

AI 公允价值与实时市场交易价值有何不同？

实时市场交易价值反映的是公众情绪、订单簿动能与投机资金。我们的 AI 公允价值则由量化模型独立计算，剔除情绪炒作、专注底层数据。两者出现显著背离时即形成 EV 差，提示市场对某个结果可能存在错误定价。

市场共识是否对某个结果反应过度？

是的——数据显示市场对 Fight to Go the Distance? 存在明显的反应过度。人群把其实时交易价值推高至 60%，但我们的公允价值评估认为其真实概率仅为 1%，形成 -59% 的负 EV 差，表明该合约被高估。

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