Trump approval rating on July 10?
核心摘要
根据「Trump approval rating on July 10?」的最新预测市场数据，交易者已形成强烈共识。
目前，40.5–40.9 以压倒性的 3,600% 获胜概率主导市场；40.0–40.4 以 2,350% 位居第二，<39.0 以 1,750% 排名第三。该市场的下注量已达 $131，反映出市场的高度关注。
竞争梯队拆解
为了更好地评估各潜在结果的位置，可依据隐含概率与合约定价将市场划分为三个明显的交易梯队：
🥇 第一梯队：绝对领跑者
- 40.5–40.9 (3,600%)：40.5–40.9 目前拥有最高概率，深受订单簿青睐。看好该结果的交易者面对的「Buy Yes」合约价为 3,600¢，显示出市场的高度确信。仅该合约就已产生 $20 的成交量。
🥈 第二梯队：主要挑战者
- 40.0–40.4 (2,350%)：作为最可行的替代选项，40.0–40.4 保持着 2,350% 的成真概率，其「Buy Yes」份额目前成交价为 2,350¢。
- <39.0 (1,750%)：以 1,750% 的概率位列第三，市场对 <39.0 持谨慎怀疑态度，除非势头转变，否则视其为外围黑马。
🥉 第三梯队：长尾选项（合计约 0%）
在前三名之外，还有大量宏观变量与冷门结果被持续追踪。尽管单个概率偏低，但它们是投机交易者的重要对冲：
- 替代选项：包括 39.0–39.4 (1,750%)、39.5–39.9 (1,750%)，以及 41.0+ (1,600%)。
- 投机成交：尽管统计概率偏低，像 39.0–39.4 这类长尾合约仍吸引着可观的关注。
完整订单簿与定价面板
下表列出了该预测池中所有结果的合约价格、概率与市场深度的完整拆解：
| 排名 | 预测结果 | 获胜概率 | 成交量 | 买入 Yes（成本） | 买入 No（成本） |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 40.5–40.9 | 3600.0% | $20 | 3600¢ | -3500¢ |
| 2 | 40.0–40.4 | 2350.0% | $26 | 2350¢ | -2250¢ |
| 3 | <39.0 | 1750.0% | $20 | 1750¢ | -1650¢ |
| 4 | 39.0–39.4 | 1750.0% | $20 | 1750¢ | -1650¢ |
| 5 | 39.5–39.9 | 1750.0% | $20 | 1750¢ | -1650¢ |
| 6 | 41.0+ | 1600.0% | $25 | 1600¢ | -1500¢ |
裁决规则
This market will resolve according to Silver Bulletin's approval rating for Donald Trump on July 10, 2026.
Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc.). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
交易动态
以下是该事件的交易动态。
Jul 4, 2026
- 04:59 AMPRPredilectos$4.59
Bought 6.12 No for Will Trump's approval rating be between 40.0 and 40.4 on July 10, 2026? at 0.75
- 04:58 AMHUHugin-og-Munin$1.20
Sold 4 Yes for Will Trump's approval rating be at least 41.0 on July 10, 2026? at 0.3
- 04:36 AMHYHyperboreanBryanCaplanFan$4.66
Bought 4.957433 No for Will Trump's approval rating be at least 41.0 on July 10, 2026? at 0.94
- 04:27 AMHUHugin-og-Munin$3.76
Bought 4 No for Will Trump's approval rating be between 40.5 and 40.9 on July 10, 2026? at 0.94
- 04:27 AMHUHugin-og-Munin$3.80
Bought 4 No for Will Trump's approval rating be less than 39.0 on July 10, 2026? at 0.95
- 04:27 AM0X0xfBd8C9C22cA76B3662d0e53A4f79719FDC684027-1779347618060$10.88
Bought 16 No for Will Trump's approval rating be between 39.0 and 39.4 on July 10, 2026? at 0.68
- 04:27 AM0X0xfBd8C9C22cA76B3662d0e53A4f79719FDC684027-1779347618060$15.36
Bought 16 No for Will Trump's approval rating be at least 41.0 on July 10, 2026? at 0.96
- 04:27 AM0X0xfBd8C9C22cA76B3662d0e53A4f79719FDC684027-1779347618060$15.04
Bought 16 No for Will Trump's approval rating be between 40.5 and 40.9 on July 10, 2026? at 0.94
- 04:27 AMHUHugin-og-Munin$3.12
Bought 4 No for Will Trump's approval rating be between 40.0 and 40.4 on July 10, 2026? at 0.78
- 04:27 AM0X0xfBd8C9C22cA76B3662d0e53A4f79719FDC684027-1779347618060$12.48
Bought 16 No for Will Trump's approval rating be between 40.0 and 40.4 on July 10, 2026? at 0.78
- 04:27 AMHUHugin-og-Munin$2.28
Bought 4 No for Will Trump's approval rating be between 39.5 and 39.9 on July 10, 2026? at 0.57
- 04:27 AM0X0xfBd8C9C22cA76B3662d0e53A4f79719FDC684027-1779347618060$9.12
Bought 16 No for Will Trump's approval rating be between 39.5 and 39.9 on July 10, 2026? at 0.57
常见问题
当前市场对「Trump approval rating on July 10?」的共识是什么？
截至最新更新，40.5–40.9 以 3,600% 的获胜概率领跑，其次是 40.0–40.4（2,350%），以及 <39.0（1,750%）。该市场总成交量已达 $131，显示出充足的流动性与高交易参与度。