Total commitments for the Credible public sale on MetaDAO

根据「Total commitments for the Credible public sale on MetaDAO」的最新预测市场数据，交易者已形成强烈共识。

目前，>2M 以压倒性的 9,480% 获胜概率主导市场；>4M 以 9,200% 位居第二，>6M 以 8,950% 排名第三。该市场的下注量已达 $3.9K，反映出市场的高度关注。

为了更好地评估各潜在结果的位置，可依据隐含概率与合约定价将市场划分为三个明显的交易梯队：

🥇 第一梯队：绝对领跑者

• >2M (9,480%)：>2M 目前拥有最高概率，深受订单簿青睐。看好该结果的交易者面对的「Buy Yes」合约价为 9,480¢，显示出市场的高度确信。仅该合约就已产生 $110 的成交量。

🥈 第二梯队：主要挑战者

• >4M (9,200%)：作为最可行的替代选项，>4M 保持着 9,200% 的成真概率，其「Buy Yes」份额目前成交价为 9,200¢。
• >6M (8,950%)：以 8,950% 的概率位列第三，市场对 >6M 持谨慎怀疑态度，除非势头转变，否则视其为外围黑马。

🥉 第三梯队：长尾选项（合计约 0%）

在前三名之外，还有大量宏观变量与冷门结果被持续追踪。尽管单个概率偏低，但它们是投机交易者的重要对冲：

• 替代选项：包括 >8M (8,850%)、>10M (8,000%)，以及 >12M (7,550%)。
• 投机成交：尽管统计概率偏低，像 >16M 这类长尾合约仍吸引着可观的关注。

This market will resolve to "Yes" if total commitments for the Credible raise on MetaDAO exceeds the number specified in the title before the raise closes. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market is the “committed” figure displayed on the official Credible sale page at https://www.metadao.fi/projects/credible/fundraise. If the displayed figure reaches the threshold at any point before August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of subsequent refunds or cancellations. If the sale is on hold and no commitment total is verifiable by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or if the raise event is otherwise cancelled or rescheduled to a time past that date, this market resolves to "No". If requisite information for this market’s resolution becomes permanently unavailable within this market’s timeframe, this market will resolve to “No”.

If the sale begins and is extended before the official closing time, commitments made during the extended period will count toward resolution.