Next President of the National Rally in 2026?

根据「Next President of the National Rally in 2026?」的最新预测市场数据，交易者已形成强烈共识。

目前，Jordan Bardella 以压倒性的 9,150% 获胜概率主导市场；Marine Le Pen 以 445% 位居第二，Jean-Philippe Tanguy 以 180% 排名第三。该市场的下注量已达 $3.8K，反映出市场的高度关注。

为了更好地评估各潜在结果的位置，可依据隐含概率与合约定价将市场划分为三个明显的交易梯队：

🥇 第一梯队：绝对领跑者

• Jordan Bardella (9,150%)：Jordan Bardella 目前拥有最高概率，深受订单簿青睐。看好该结果的交易者面对的「Buy Yes」合约价为 9,150¢，显示出市场的高度确信。仅该合约就已产生 $1.7K 的成交量。

🥈 第二梯队：主要挑战者

• Marine Le Pen (445%)：作为最可行的替代选项，Marine Le Pen 保持着 445% 的成真概率，其「Buy Yes」份额目前成交价为 445¢。
• Jean-Philippe Tanguy (180%)：以 180% 的概率位列第三，市场对 Jean-Philippe Tanguy 持谨慎怀疑态度，除非势头转变，否则视其为外围黑马。

🥉 第三梯队：长尾选项（合计约 0%）

在前三名之外，还有大量宏观变量与冷门结果被持续追踪。尽管单个概率偏低，但它们是投机交易者的重要对冲：

• 替代选项：包括 Laurent Jacobelli (170%)、David Rachline (110%)，以及 Hélène Laporte (110%)。
• 投机成交：尽管统计概率偏低，像 Sébastien Chenu 这类长尾合约仍吸引着可观的关注。

The National Rally’s 2026 Congress is scheduled for October 24–25, 2026 in Orléans, where the results of the election for party president are expected to be announced.

This market will resolve to the individual who is officially announced as President of the National Rally following the National Rally’s 2026 Congress.

To count for resolution, the individual must be officially elected, reelected, or otherwise announced by the National Rally as President of the National Rally following the 2026 Congress.

If no such President of the National Rally is announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the National Rally; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.