Next leader of Germany's Union (CDU/CSU)?

根据「Next leader of Germany's Union (CDU/CSU)?」的最新预测市场数据，交易者已形成强烈共识。

目前，Alexander Hoffmann 以压倒性的 4,550% 获胜概率主导市场；Thorsten Frei 以 4,250% 位居第二，Nina Warken 以 4,250% 排名第三。该市场的下注量已达 —，反映出市场的高度关注。

为了更好地评估各潜在结果的位置，可依据隐含概率与合约定价将市场划分为三个明显的交易梯队：

🥇 第一梯队：绝对领跑者

• Alexander Hoffmann (4,550%)：Alexander Hoffmann 目前拥有最高概率，深受订单簿青睐。看好该结果的交易者面对的「Buy Yes」合约价为 4,550¢，显示出市场的高度确信。

🥈 第二梯队：主要挑战者

• Thorsten Frei (4,250%)：作为最可行的替代选项，Thorsten Frei 保持着 4,250% 的成真概率，其「Buy Yes」份额目前成交价为 4,250¢。
• Nina Warken (4,250%)：以 4,250% 的概率位列第三，市场对 Nina Warken 持谨慎怀疑态度，除非势头转变，否则视其为外围黑马。

🥉 第三梯队：长尾选项（合计约 0%）

在前三名之外，还有大量宏观变量与冷门结果被持续追踪。尽管单个概率偏低，但它们是投机交易者的重要对冲：

• 替代选项：包括 Michael Brand (4,250%)、Alexander Dobrindt (4,150%)，以及 Carsten Linnemann (4,100%)。
• 投机成交：尽管统计概率偏低，像 Günter Krings 这类长尾合约仍吸引着可观的关注。

On July 18, 2026, Jens Spahn resigned as Unionsfraktionsvorsitzender after coming under mounting political pressure over his use of surrogacy to become a parent (see: https://www.reuters.com/world/senior-merz-ally-spahn-resigns-after-coming-under-pressure-germany-over-2026-07-18/).

This market will resolve according to the first person formally elected as Unionsfraktionsvorsitzender of the CDU/CSU Bundestag parliamentary group following Jens Spahn.

The resolution of this market will be based on the first official announcement that the CDU/CSU Bundestag parliamentary group has elected its next Unionsfraktionsvorsitzender after Jens Spahn.

Nominations, agreements between Friedrich Merz and Markus Söder, and temporary, interim, or acting performance of the chair’s duties will not qualify.

If the next Unionsfraktionsvorsitzender of the CDU/CSU Bundestag parliamentary group after Jens Spahn is not announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source will be official information from the CDU/CSU Bundestag parliamentary group; however, a consensus of credible media sources will also suffice.