Next Google Gemini Pro Model released on...?

根据「Next Google Gemini Pro Model released on...?」的最新预测市场数据，交易者已形成强烈共识。

目前，No release by June 30 以压倒性的 98.5% 获胜概率主导市场；June 30 以 1.5% 位居第二。该市场的下注量已达 $239.9K，反映出市场的高度关注。

为了更好地评估各潜在结果的位置，可依据隐含概率与合约定价将市场划分为三个明显的交易梯队：

🥇 第一梯队：绝对领跑者

• No release by June 30 (98.5%)：No release by June 30 目前拥有最高概率，深受订单簿青睐。看好该结果的交易者面对的「Buy Yes」合约价为 98¢，显示出市场的高度确信。仅该合约就已产生 $58.3K 的成交量。

🥈 第二梯队：主要挑战者

• June 30 (1.5%)：作为最可行的替代选项，June 30 保持着 1.5% 的成真概率，其「Buy Yes」份额目前成交价为 1¢。

This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public.

Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.

Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.

A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

人群共识与投机成交塑造了更宏观的预测市场，而我们的量化算法提供了数据驱动的反向视角。通过分析基本面信号、底层趋势与历史分布，我们的 AI 估值模型为每个结果独立测算出一个「公允价值」概率。

将该公允价值与当前交易价值对比，可揭示出重大背离——即期望值（EV）差。正 EV 差代表统计上被低估的结果，而负 EV 差则提示市场可能存在反应过度。

顶级 AI Alpha 与错误定价套利机会

根据最新一轮数据模型测算，以下几个关键合约存在显著偏离：

• 最被高估的结果：No release by June 30 当前交易价为 98.5%，但我们的 AI 测算其公允价值仅为 52.4%，形成 -46% 的较大负 EV 差，表明人群可能过度炒作该结果、把溢价推得过高。
• 最佳价值标的（最高 EV）：我们的模型将 June 30 识别为盘面上最具价值的机会。市场仅给予其 1.5% 的交易概率，而我们 AI 的公允价值评估为 24.2%——形成可观的 +22.7% EV 差。