NBA: LeBron to Sign With Former Team?
核心摘要
根据「NBA: LeBron to Sign With Former Team?」的最新预测市场数据，交易者已形成强烈共识。
目前，Yes 以压倒性的 5,000% 获胜概率主导市场；No 以 5,000% 位居第二。该市场的下注量已达 —，反映出市场的高度关注。
竞争梯队拆解
为了更好地评估各潜在结果的位置，可依据隐含概率与合约定价将市场划分为三个明显的交易梯队：
🥇 第一梯队：绝对领跑者
- Yes (5,000%)：Yes 目前拥有最高概率，深受订单簿青睐。看好该结果的交易者面对的「Buy Yes」合约价为 5,000¢，显示出市场的高度确信。
🥈 第二梯队：主要挑战者
- No (5,000%)：作为最可行的替代选项，No 保持着 5,000% 的成真概率，其「Buy Yes」份额目前成交价为 5,000¢。
完整订单簿与定价面板
下表列出了该预测池中所有结果的合约价格、概率与市场深度的完整拆解：
| 排名 | 预测结果 | 获胜概率 | 成交量 | 买入 Yes（成本） | 买入 No（成本） |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yes | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 2 | No | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
裁决规则
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the next team LeBron James agrees to a contract with is a team he has formerly played for in his NBA career. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A former team is defined as one of the following NBA franchises: Cleveland Cavaliers, Miami Heat, or Los Angeles Lakers.
If LeBron James retires or does not sign a new NBA contract by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “50-50”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the acquiring team; however, a consensus of credible sources may also be used.
常见问题
当前市场对「NBA: LeBron to Sign With Former Team?」的共识是什么？
截至最新更新，Yes 以 5,000% 的获胜概率领跑，其次是 No（5,000%）。该市场总成交量已达 —，显示出充足的流动性与高交易参与度。