
San Diego Padres vs. Kansas City Royals
核心摘要
根据「San Diego Padres vs. Kansas City Royals」的最新预测市场数据,交易者已形成强烈共识。
目前,O/U 11.5 以压倒性的 9,995% 获胜概率主导市场;O/U 12.5 以 9,995% 位居第二,Extra Innings 以 9,945% 排名第三。该市场的下注量已达 $560K,反映出市场的高度关注。
竞争梯队拆解
为了更好地评估各潜在结果的位置,可依据隐含概率与合约定价将市场划分为三个明显的交易梯队:
🥇 第一梯队:绝对领跑者
- O/U 11.5 (9,995%):O/U 11.5 目前拥有最高概率,深受订单簿青睐。看好该结果的交易者面对的「Buy Yes」合约价为 9,995¢,显示出市场的高度确信。仅该合约就已产生 $10 的成交量。
🥈 第二梯队:主要挑战者
- O/U 12.5 (9,995%):作为最可行的替代选项,O/U 12.5 保持着 9,995% 的成真概率,其「Buy Yes」份额目前成交价为 9,995¢。
- Extra Innings (9,945%):以 9,945% 的概率位列第三,市场对 Extra Innings 持谨慎怀疑态度,除非势头转变,否则视其为外围黑马。
🥉 第三梯队:长尾选项(合计约 0%)
在前三名之外,还有大量宏观变量与冷门结果被持续追踪。尽管单个概率偏低,但它们是投机交易者的重要对冲:
- 替代选项:包括 San Diego Padres vs. Kansas City Royals (5%)、Spread -1.5 (5%),以及 Spread -1.5 (5%)。
- 投机成交:尽管统计概率偏低,像 Spread -2.5 这类长尾合约仍吸引着可观的关注。
完整订单簿与定价面板
下表列出了该预测池中所有结果的合约价格、概率与市场深度的完整拆解:
| 排名 | 预测结果 | 获胜概率 | 成交量 | 买入 Yes(成本) | 买入 No(成本) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | O/U 11.5 | 9995.0% | $10 | 9995¢ | -9895¢ |
| 2 | O/U 12.5 | 9995.0% | $5 | 9995¢ | -9895¢ |
| 3 | Extra Innings | 9945.0% | $110 | 9945¢ | -9845¢ |
| 4 | San Diego Padres vs. Kansas City Royals | 5.0% | $479.3K | 5¢ | 95¢ |
| 5 | Spread -1.5 | 5.0% | $4.6K | 5¢ | 95¢ |
| 6 | Spread -1.5 | 5.0% | $4.6K | 5¢ | 95¢ |
| 7 | Spread -2.5 | 5.0% | $10 | 5¢ | 95¢ |
| 8 | O/U 13.5 | 5.0% | $15 | 5¢ | 95¢ |
裁决规则
In the upcoming MLB game between the San Diego Padres and Kansas City Royals, scheduled for July 17 at 8:10PM ET:
This market will resolve to "San Diego Padres" if the San Diego Padres win the game.
This market will resolve to "Kansas City Royals" if the Kansas City Royals win the game.
If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50.
The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.
交易动态
以下是该事件的交易动态。
Jul 17, 2026
- 08:18 PMMSmsjosi5kxl29$0.02
Sold 0.04 San Diego Padres for San Diego Padres vs. Kansas City Royals at 0.52
- 08:18 PMPApablera$9.00
Bought 16.981131 San Diego Padres for San Diego Padres vs. Kansas City Royals at 0.53
- 08:17 PM——$1.00
Bought 2.083332 Kansas City Royals for San Diego Padres vs. Kansas City Royals at 0.48
- 08:10 PMMSmsjosi5kxl29$0.04
Sold 0.08 San Diego Padres for San Diego Padres vs. Kansas City Royals at 0.52
- 08:10 PM-T-TrustMeBro-$16.00
Bought 30.188678 San Diego Padres for San Diego Padres vs. Kansas City Royals at 0.53
- 08:04 PMMSmsjosi5kxl29$0.01
Sold 0.01 San Diego Padres for San Diego Padres vs. Kansas City Royals at 0.52
- 08:04 PM0X0x4b88c809e77716a8C42f6E2e0fBD60db4e83772C-1776422825573$3.00
Bought 5.660376 San Diego Padres for San Diego Padres vs. Kansas City Royals at 0.53
- 08:03 PMSCsc1pt0x$25.18
Bought 46.629628 Yes for Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Diego Padres vs. Kansas City Royals at 0.54
- 08:03 PMSCsc1pt0x$12.10
Bought 22.407406 Under for San Diego Padres vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 10.5 at 0.54
- 08:03 PMSCsc1pt0x$48.89
Bought 116.40476 San Diego Padres for Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5) at 0.42
- 08:02 PMMSmsjosi5kxl29$0.03
Sold 0.06 San Diego Padres for San Diego Padres vs. Kansas City Royals at 0.52
- 08:02 PMSCsc1pt0x$11.55
Bought 21.792451 San Diego Padres for San Diego Padres vs. Kansas City Royals at 0.53
正在押注该事件的鲸鱼钱包
常见问题
当前市场对「San Diego Padres vs. Kansas City Royals」的共识是什么?
截至最新更新,O/U 11.5 以 9,995% 的获胜概率领跑,其次是 O/U 12.5(9,995%),以及 Extra Innings(9,945%)。该市场总成交量已达 $560K,显示出充足的流动性与高交易参与度。
