
Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago Cubs
核心摘要
根据「Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago Cubs」的最新预测市场数据,交易者已形成强烈共识。
目前,1st 5 Innings Spread -2.5 以压倒性的 9,995% 获胜概率主导市场;Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago Cubs 以 9,350% 位居第二,Spread -1.5 以 8,050% 排名第三。该市场的下注量已达 $689.2K,反映出市场的高度关注。
竞争梯队拆解
为了更好地评估各潜在结果的位置,可依据隐含概率与合约定价将市场划分为三个明显的交易梯队:
🥇 第一梯队:绝对领跑者
- 1st 5 Innings Spread -2.5 (9,995%):1st 5 Innings Spread -2.5 目前拥有最高概率,深受订单簿青睐。看好该结果的交易者面对的「Buy Yes」合约价为 9,995¢,显示出市场的高度确信。
🥈 第二梯队:主要挑战者
- Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago Cubs (9,350%):作为最可行的替代选项,Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago Cubs 保持着 9,350% 的成真概率,其「Buy Yes」份额目前成交价为 9,350¢。
- Spread -1.5 (8,050%):以 8,050% 的概率位列第三,市场对 Spread -1.5 持谨慎怀疑态度,除非势头转变,否则视其为外围黑马。
🥉 第三梯队:长尾选项(合计约 0%)
在前三名之外,还有大量宏观变量与冷门结果被持续追踪。尽管单个概率偏低,但它们是投机交易者的重要对冲:
- 替代选项:包括 Spread -2.5 (6,650%)、O/U 8.5 (5,050%),以及 Extra Innings (5,000%)。
- 投机成交:尽管统计概率偏低,像 Spread -4.5 这类长尾合约仍吸引着可观的关注。
完整订单簿与定价面板
下表列出了该预测池中所有结果的合约价格、概率与市场深度的完整拆解:
| 排名 | 预测结果 | 获胜概率 | 成交量 | 买入 Yes(成本) | 买入 No(成本) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1st 5 Innings Spread -2.5 | 9995.0% | — | 9995¢ | -9895¢ |
| 2 | Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago Cubs | 9350.0% | $345.5K | 9350¢ | -9250¢ |
| 3 | Spread -1.5 | 8050.0% | $4.4K | 8050¢ | -7950¢ |
| 4 | Spread -2.5 | 6650.0% | $4.0K | 6650¢ | -6550¢ |
| 5 | O/U 8.5 | 5050.0% | — | 5050¢ | -4950¢ |
| 6 | Extra Innings | 5000.0% | $50 | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 7 | Spread -4.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 8 | O/U 9.5 | 2250.0% | $1.4K | 2250¢ | -2150¢ |
| 9 | O/U 10.5 | 2100.0% | $192.8K | 2100¢ | -2000¢ |
| 10 | Spread -3.5 | 1950.0% | $210 | 1950¢ | -1850¢ |
| 11 | O/U 11.5 | 850.0% | $118.5K | 850¢ | -750¢ |
| 12 | O/U 12.5 | 650.0% | $144 | 650¢ | -550¢ |
| 13 | O/U 13.5 | 500.0% | — | 500¢ | -400¢ |
| 14 | Spread -3.5 | 300.0% | $210 | 300¢ | -200¢ |
| 15 | Spread -1.5 | 250.0% | $4.4K | 250¢ | -150¢ |
| 16 | Spread -2.5 | 250.0% | $4.0K | 250¢ | -150¢ |
| 17 | 1st 5 Innings Spread -1.5 | 5.0% | — | 5¢ | 95¢ |
| 18 | 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5 | 5.0% | $1.3K | 5¢ | 95¢ |
裁决规则
In the upcoming MLB game between the Minnesota Twins and Chicago Cubs, scheduled for July 17 at 8:05PM ET:
This market will resolve to "Minnesota Twins" if the Minnesota Twins win the game.
This market will resolve to "Chicago Cubs" if the Chicago Cubs win the game.
If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50.
The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.
交易动态
以下是该事件的交易动态。
Jul 17, 2026
- 08:19 PMPApablera$9.00
Bought 16.363635 Over for Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 10.5 at 0.55
- 08:18 PMNEneutralwave23$287.80
Bought 504.912279 Chicago Cubs for Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago Cubs at 0.57
- 08:02 PMSCsc1pt0x$13.73
Bought 24.087718 Yes for Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago Cubs at 0.57
- 08:02 PMDOdougieswim$12.37
Bought 26.891303 Under for Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 10.5 at 0.46
- 08:01 PMSCsc1pt0x$12.54
Bought 22.8 Over for Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 10.5 at 0.55
- 08:01 PMSCsc1pt0x$46.78
Bought 114.097559 Chicago Cubs for Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) at 0.41
- 08:01 PMSCsc1pt0x$44.45
Bought 77.982455 Chicago Cubs for Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago Cubs at 0.57
- 07:52 PMPAPaidupra$2.00
Bought 3.508769 Chicago Cubs for Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago Cubs at 0.57
- 07:51 PM-T-TrustMeBro-$4.00
Bought 9.090908 Minnesota Twins for Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago Cubs at 0.44
- 07:40 PM0X0x8d10b39465225d7a881b56b4Af8354997f0C940A-1767024582634$47.14
Bought 107.136362 Minnesota Twins for Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago Cubs at 0.44
- 07:40 PMCUcumulus33$508.64
Bought 1156 Minnesota Twins for Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago Cubs at 0.44
- 07:26 PMLOlovevul3cl33$25.00
Bought 60.975608 Chicago Cubs for Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) at 0.41
正在押注该事件的鲸鱼钱包
常见问题
当前市场对「Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago Cubs」的共识是什么?
截至最新更新,1st 5 Innings Spread -2.5 以 9,995% 的获胜概率领跑,其次是 Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago Cubs(9,350%),以及 Spread -1.5(8,050%)。该市场总成交量已达 $689.2K,显示出充足的流动性与高交易参与度。
