Marine Le Pen out as Member of the National Assembly by...?

根据「Marine Le Pen out as Member of the National Assembly by...?」的最新预测市场数据，交易者已形成强烈共识。

目前，October 31 以压倒性的 900% 获胜概率主导市场；July 31 以 60% 位居第二。该市场的下注量已达 $776，反映出市场的高度关注。

为了更好地评估各潜在结果的位置，可依据隐含概率与合约定价将市场划分为三个明显的交易梯队：

🥇 第一梯队：绝对领跑者

• October 31 (900%)：October 31 目前拥有最高概率，深受订单簿青睐。看好该结果的交易者面对的「Buy Yes」合约价为 900¢，显示出市场的高度确信。仅该合约就已产生 $60 的成交量。

🥈 第二梯队：主要挑战者

• July 31 (60%)：作为最可行的替代选项，July 31 保持着 60% 的成真概率，其「Buy Yes」份额目前成交价为 60¢。

This market resolves to “Yes” if Marine Le Pen’s departure as Member of the National Assembly of France from the 11th constituency of Pas-de-Calais is officially announced by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.

The departure will be considered to be announced when Marine Le Pen, the National Assembly of France, or their authorized representatives publicly and definitively announce that Le Pen has ceased or will cease to hold the position of Member of the National Assembly of France from the 11th constituency of Pas-de-Calais. Such an announcement will qualify regardless of when the specified person formally leaves the position. Announcements of the specified person’s resignation, removal, or departure through other means all qualify.

Only announcements which are framed as announcing a departure intended to be effective within 18 months of the date of the announcement will qualify (e.g., neither “I will leave office in 2 years,” nor “I will not be in office forever,” would qualify).

Announcements of temporary leaves of absence, dated suspensions, indefinite suspensions, administrative leaves, or other temporary changes to the specified person’s duties in the specified position do not qualify.

The following do not qualify as public and definitive announcements: statements that the specified person is considering or open to departing; conditional statements that the specified person will depart only if certain conditions are met; the announcement of an offer of resignation that requires acceptance and remains pending or has been refused; media reports that the specified person plans to depart; statements made in sarcasm or jest; and statements by persons other than the specified person, the relevant authority governing the specified position, or their respective authorized representatives.

If the specified person holds the specified position on a predefined term with a scheduled end date, only announcements that they will depart the position prior to the scheduled end of their term qualify.

If the specified person formally ceases to hold the specified position before the end of their scheduled term without a qualifying announcement, the market will resolve to “Yes” if a consensus of credible reporting confirms the departure by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.

The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Marine Le Pen and the National Assembly of France; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.