Le Pen names non-Bardella PM by...?

根据「Le Pen names non-Bardella PM by...?」的最新预测市场数据，交易者已形成强烈共识。

目前，April 17, 2027 以压倒性的 1,950% 获胜概率主导市场；December 31, 2026 以 1,450% 位居第二。该市场的下注量已达 $26，反映出市场的高度关注。

为了更好地评估各潜在结果的位置，可依据隐含概率与合约定价将市场划分为三个明显的交易梯队：

🥇 第一梯队：绝对领跑者

• April 17, 2027 (1,950%)：April 17, 2027 目前拥有最高概率，深受订单簿青睐。看好该结果的交易者面对的「Buy Yes」合约价为 1,950¢，显示出市场的高度确信。仅该合约就已产生 $26 的成交量。

🥈 第二梯队：主要挑战者

• December 31, 2026 (1,450%)：作为最可行的替代选项，December 31, 2026 保持着 1,450% 的成真概率，其「Buy Yes」份额目前成交价为 1,450¢。

On July 7, 2026, Marine Le Pen announced she is running in the 2027 French presidential election and has named Jordan Bardella as her intended Prime Minister. You can read more about that here: https://www.politico.eu/article/france-marine-le-pen-jordan-bardella-2027-campaign/.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Marine Le Pen publicly names someone other than Jordan Bardella as the person she would appoint or support as Prime Minister if elected President by the specified date, 11:59 PM Paris time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

A qualifying endorsement must be a public statement naming a preferred Prime Minister other than Jordan Bardella if Le Pen is elected President. Withdrawing support from Bardella alone will not qualify unless Le Pen also names another person for Prime Minister.

If Marine Le Pen definitively drops out, is disqualified, or does not run as a presidential candidate in the 2027 French presidential election, this market will resolve to “No” immediately.

Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks do not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Marine Le Pen, the National Rally, or their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.